JacksonHole全球央行会议鲍威尔讲话点评：颠覆7月，全面转鸽

Monetary Policy Insights - Powell's shift from a hawkish stance in July to a dovish outlook at the Jackson Hole meeting indicates a changing risk balance, with employment risks now outweighing inflation risks[2] - If August's inflation and employment data align with Powell's expectations, a 25 basis point rate cut in September is deemed reasonable[2] - The Fed's previous tariff-induced inflation shocks are expected to persist longer than anticipated, suggesting a potential for preemptive rate cuts[2] Economic Indicators - U.S. tariff revenues are projected to be around $300 billion per year over the next two years, potentially alleviating fiscal deficit pressure by approximately 1 percentage point[3] - Employment risks are rising due to a simultaneous decline in labor supply and demand, which could lead to increased layoffs and higher unemployment rates[7] Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, the probability of a rate cut in September increased from 73.3% to 89.2%[11] - Major U.S. stock indices saw gains, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones rising by 1.6%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively[7] Future Outlook - The adjustment in monetary policy framework suggests a higher tolerance for inflation compared to employment risks, indicating a greater likelihood of downward pressure on policy rates in the medium term[7] - The potential for a market correction exists post-rate cut, as recent positive earnings may have already priced in favorable conditions[8]