煤炭：供给扰动仍存，全社会用电量同比+8.6%

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that reversing the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline is the fundamental goal, with July PPI down 3.6% year-on-year, continuing its downward trend. The correlation between PPI and coal prices suggests that stabilizing coal prices is crucial. The lowest coal prices in 2024 may represent a policy bottom, with expectations for more supply-side policies to be introduced. Given the unclear demand-side changes, coal prices are expected to fluctuate upward amidst volatility, with a focus on high-quality core stocks as primary targets [5][6] - The report indicates that the coal industry is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by policy directions and energy security demands, suggesting that coal may still be in a golden era. The limited elasticity of coal supply is highlighted due to strict capacity controls under carbon neutrality goals, increasing mining difficulties, and regional supply disparities. The report concludes that the position of coal as a primary energy source is unlikely to change in the short term, with coal prices expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern supported by rigid supply and rising costs [5] Summary by Sections Coal Supply and Demand - As of August 22, 2025, the average daily production of 462 sample coal mines is 5.536 million tons, down 122,000 tons week-on-week, and down 3.6% year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate is 91.9%, down 2 percentage points week-on-week [3][37] - The daily consumption of the six major power plants is 920,000 tons, down 0.3% week-on-week, while their inventory is 13.586 million tons, up 0.3% week-on-week [39][40] - The methanol and urea operating rates are at 83.9% and 84.0%, respectively, indicating a historical high level of operation [3][44] Coal Prices - The Qinhuangdao 5500K coal price is 704 RMB/ton, up 6 RMB/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 15.5%. The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao coal is 668 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [3][24][28] - The report notes that the average price of coal in Inner Mongolia remains stable, while prices in Shanxi have dropped significantly, indicating regional price disparities [28][29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with excellent resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. It also highlights companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from the coal price cycle, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy Chemical [6]