ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-08-23 14:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 74.436 billion yuan, down 19.95% year-on-year, and net profit at 7.705 billion yuan, down 21.28% year-on-year [1][2] - The coal segment experienced a decrease in sales volume but managed to increase production, with a total coal output of 67.34 million tons, up 0.12% year-on-year [2] - The coal price has shown signs of recovery since June, with the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal rising from 609 yuan/ton to 704 yuan/ton, indicating potential for continued improvement in the fundamentals [5] Summary by Sections Coal Segment - The company increased its coal production while facing a decline in sales volume, achieving a total coal output of 67.34 million tons, an increase of 840,000 tons year-on-year, but a sales volume of 128.68 million tons, down 3.6% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of self-produced coal decreased by 19.5% year-on-year to 470 yuan/ton, with significant drops in prices for both thermal coal and coking coal [2] - The coal business reported a gross profit of 14.347 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.01 billion yuan year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.7%, down 1.8 percentage points [2] Coal Chemical Segment - The coal chemical segment saw a slight increase in production, with a total output of 2.988 million tons, up 2.1% year-on-year, and sales volume of 3.166 million tons, up 2.7% year-on-year [3] - Average selling prices for key products such as polyolefins and urea decreased significantly, impacting the gross profit, which fell to 1.416 billion yuan, down 36.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.1%, down 5.3 percentage points [3] Mining Equipment Segment - The mining equipment segment reported a revenue of 4.767 billion yuan, down 15.3% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in hydraulic support sales [4] - Despite the revenue decline, the segment achieved a gross profit of 0.951 billion yuan, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 19.9%, up 4.5 percentage points [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company expects a significant increase in coal prices in the second half of 2025, projecting net profits of 17.36 billion yuan, 18.02 billion yuan, and 18.22 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.2, 8.9, and 8.8 [6]