Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-23 15:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping sector, particularly highlighting the potential for VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates to strengthen in the upcoming months [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that tanker rates have exceeded expectations during the off-season, with VLCC rates expected to perform strongly from September to December due to reduced exports from Iran and increased production in the Middle East [4]. - The report recommends specific companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and highlights the potential for consolidation in the Chinese shipping industry [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of freight volumes in rail and highway transport, suggesting steady growth in these sectors [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - VLCC rates increased by 32% this week, reaching $45,800 per day, driven by limited supply and increased demand from the Atlantic market [4]. - The report notes that the average export volume from Iran has decreased to 1.3-1.5 million barrels per day, down from 1.7-1.9 million barrels per day in July [4]. - The Suez crude oil tanker rates rose by 15% to $59,563 per day, supported by strong demand from the West African market [4]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 4.9% to 1,944 points, primarily due to a decline in large vessel rates, while smaller vessels showed stronger performance [5]. - The report remains optimistic about the Capesize bulk carrier market in the second half of the year, citing expected increases in shipments from major miners [4]. Air Transport - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" policy from the Civil Aviation Administration is likely to optimize competition in the airline industry, benefiting airline profitability in the long term [4]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, with a focus on the potential for improved earnings due to supply constraints and demand recovery [4]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates a price increase in the express delivery sector driven by the "anti-involution" policy, with expectations for sustained profitability in the e-commerce delivery segment [4]. - Companies such as Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted as having strong potential for recovery and valuation improvement [4]. Rail and Highway Transport - Data from the Ministry of Transport indicates that rail freight volume increased by 1.22% week-on-week, while highway freight traffic rose by 3.06% [4]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yield stocks and potential value recovery in undervalued stocks [4].