Minsheng Securities·2025-08-23 15:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the petrochemical sector, specifically recommending China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [4]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is entering a phase of "anti-involution," with a focus on potential profit recovery driven by government policies aimed at optimizing supply and eliminating outdated production capacity [2][8]. - Oil prices have shown a slight increase due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions, with Brent crude oil futures settling at $67.73 per barrel, up 2.85% week-on-week [2][42]. - The report highlights the rising U.S. crude oil production, which reached 13.38 million barrels per day, and an increase in refinery throughput to 17.21 million barrels per day, contributing to a decrease in crude oil inventories [3][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing geopolitical situation, particularly the unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict, which continues to influence oil prices and market sentiment [1][7]. - It notes that the Chinese government is expected to implement a comprehensive restructuring plan for the petrochemical and refining sectors, which could lead to improved profitability for major players like CNPC and Sinopec [2][8]. Market Performance - As of August 22, the CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical sector index rose by 2.6%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which increased by 4.2% [12][17]. - Among listed companies, Baomo Co. saw the highest weekly gain of 15.61%, while Hongtian Co. experienced the largest decline of 6.99% [18][19]. Company Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with CNPC expected to have an EPS of 0.90 yuan in 2024, while Sinopec is projected at 0.41 yuan [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stable performance and high dividend yields in selecting investment targets within the sector [11].