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流动性跟踪:月末资金再“闯关”
Tianfeng Securities·2025-08-23 15:37
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - This week, the funding situation unexpectedly tightened and then marginally eased, with interest rates moving "first up and then down." There was a divergence between expectations and reality, mainly due to the resonance of traditional tax periods and non - traditional stock - bond market linkages. The central bank increased and advanced liquidity injections to stabilize expectations and block the spread of redemption pressure [1]. - In the coming week, the month - end funding situation will face another "test." The probability of a significant and continuous increase is low, but fluctuations may be more obvious than in previous years. Attention should be paid to the central bank's precise hedging and the effective restoration of large banks' willingness to lend [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Month - end Funding Re - "Challenging" - This week, the funding situation unexpectedly tightened, and the central bank increased its injections to ease it. Interest rate fluctuations increased, running at relatively high levels since August. The willingness of large state - owned banks to lend decreased rapidly, and the CD issuance price fluctuated. The central bank's large - scale injections stabilized the funding situation, with a more advanced care rhythm [11]. - The expected and actual funding situation deviated this week. The resonance of the tax period and bond fund redemptions amplified the fluctuations. On August 18, when the redemption pressure was high, the net subscription index of bond - type funds dropped significantly [17]. - Looking ahead to next week, the funding situation will face a "test." The potential redemption pressure and large - scale expirations in the open market, as well as the restoration of large banks' willingness to lend, are the key factors. The smooth "passage" of the funding situation requires the central bank's precise hedging and the effective restoration of large banks' willingness to lend [21]. 3.2. Open Market: Next Week's Maturity Scale Increases Significantly - From August 18 - 22, the open market had a net injection of 126.52 billion yuan. From August 25 - 29, the open market maturity will be 237.7 billion yuan, including 207.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase and 30 billion yuan of MLF [25]. 3.3. Government Bonds: Next Week's Issuance Scale Declines - This week, the government bonds had a net payment of 294.8 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 351.6 billion yuan, with a net payment of 211.5 billion yuan [33]. 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Forecast - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in August 2025 will be about 1.32%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.08 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 0.09 pct [41]. 3.5. Money Market: Large Banks' Net Lending Declines Significantly - Interest rates moved "first up and then down." Overnight rates ran above 1.4%. SHIBOR, CNH HIBOR, interest rate swap closing rates, and bill rates all changed to varying degrees. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, while that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged treasury bond repurchase increased [44][54]. - This week, the average net lending of the banking system was 2.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.1745 trillion yuan compared with last week. The net lending of large state - owned banks decreased significantly [58]. 3.6. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit 3.6.1. Primary Market: Next Week's Maturity Scale Declines Slightly - This week, the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 54.81 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 24.92 billion yuan, a decrease in both issuance scale and net financing compared with last week. By entity, city commercial banks had the highest issuance scale, and others had the highest net financing. By term, 1Y CDs had the highest issuance scale, and 9M CDs had the highest net financing. Next week, the maturity scale will be 75.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.67 billion yuan [67]. 3.6.2. Secondary Market: Yields Increase - Yields of CDs of all terms and grades increased. For example, the yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y AAA - grade CDs all increased [88].