Guoxin Securities·2025-08-24 07:52Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][50]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue growth of 3.3% in the first half of 2025, with operating profit remaining stable, but net profit declined by 11% [1][6]. - The gross margin slightly decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.0%, primarily due to channel structure adjustments and increased discounts [1][6]. - The management maintains a revenue growth guidance for 2025 at a flat rate, with a net profit margin expected to be in the high single digits [2][49]. - The company is focusing on improving operational efficiency and expects marketing investments to drive future sales growth [3][50]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 14.82 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% and a net profit of 1.74 billion, down 11% year-on-year [1][6]. - The operating profit margin slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 16.5%, while the net profit margin fell by 1.9 percentage points to 11.7% [1][7]. - The company generated a net operating cash inflow of 2.41 billion, increasing its net cash to 19.19 billion, indicating a strong cash position [8]. Revenue Growth by Category - Revenue growth by category showed that footwear increased by 4.9%, apparel decreased by 3.4%, and accessories surged by 23.7% [2][24]. - The running category saw a revenue increase of 15%, while basketball and sports fashion categories experienced declines of 20% and 7%, respectively [2][24]. - The company launched a personal logo for signed player Yang Hansheng in the basketball category and established a laboratory with aerospace technology innovation platforms for the training category [2][24]. Inventory and Channel Health - The company reported a healthy inventory level with a turnover days of 61, down by 1 day year-on-year, and accounts receivable turnover days also decreased by 1 day to 14 [2][31]. - The total number of stores reached 7,534, with a net decrease of 51 stores compared to the end of the previous year [2][44]. - E-commerce performance was strong, with online sales growing at a high single-digit rate, while direct sales from stores decreased due to structural optimization [2][46]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company estimates net profits of 2.51 billion, 2.83 billion, and 3.04 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16.6% in 2025, followed by growth in subsequent years [3][51]. - The reasonable valuation has been adjusted to 21.1-22.3 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 18-19x for 2026 [3][50].