Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the destocking phase for live pigs is nearing its end, with a focus on the effects of a new round of pork reserves [1] - The report highlights a recent decline in pork prices, with the average price for live pigs at 13.75 yuan/kg, down 0.07% week-on-week, and a significant drop in the price of piglets by 3.78% to 27.78 yuan/kg [1][22] - The report notes an increase in the average weight of slaughtered pigs, which is expected to stabilize prices as the government resumes pork reserves to boost market sentiment [1][22] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with the sector index rising by 3.72% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.49% [13] - The report provides a detailed performance breakdown of sub-sectors, with livestock farming showing a 4.31% increase [13] 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Live Pigs - The average weight of slaughtered pigs is reported at 127.98 kg, showing a slight increase of 0.16 kg week-on-week [22] - The national frozen meat storage capacity rate is at 14.77%, up 0.1 percentage points [22] 2.2 White Feather Broilers - The price of white feather broilers increased to 7.33 yuan/kg, up 1.81% week-on-week, while chick prices remained stable at 3.58 yuan each [31] 2.3 Yellow Feather Broilers - The price of medium-speed chickens rose to 6.34 yuan/jin, reflecting a 4.97% increase, driven by rising demand post-typhoon [40] 2.4 Feed Sector - The report notes a decline in the prices of corn, wheat, and soybean meal, with corn averaging 2373.53 yuan/ton, down 0.86% week-on-week [2][45] 2.5 Major Agricultural Products - The price of natural rubber fell to 15640 yuan/ton, down 0.89% week-on-week, with inventory levels decreasing slightly [60] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, suggesting that the long-term profitability cycle is beginning to improve, with specific companies highlighted for investment: Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group [3] - It also suggests monitoring the feed and animal health sectors, particularly companies like Haida Group and Ruipu Biological, as demand is expected to rise [3] - In the planting chain, the report identifies investment opportunities in companies such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang Group due to favorable grain price trends [3]
光大证券农林牧渔行业周报:生猪去库存渐入尾声,关注新一轮收储效果-20250824