短期快速上攻临近尾声，中期聚焦反转方向

Investment Focus - The report indicates that incremental inflows are expected to support A-shares, while global risk appetite may face pressure ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium [1][5] - A-shares have entered an accelerated rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3,700 and 3,800 points, and a significant increase in the probability of a September Fed rate cut [1][6] - The report anticipates a potential gap-up for A-shares, with the Shanghai Composite possibly challenging 3,900 points, nearing the annual target of 4,000 points for 2025 [1][5] Market Dynamics - The Jackson Hole meeting raised the probability of a September rate cut to 81%, with markets pricing in easing expectations, although U.S. equities remained cautious [2][6] - The report highlights a structural rotation in A-shares, with a shift from GEM heavyweights to STAR Board heavyweights, and a rotation into beaten-down liquor stocks [9] - A-share average daily turnover increased to RMB 2.6 trillion, up RMB 500 billion from the previous week, indicating heightened market activity [9] Economic Indicators - The report notes that the 10-year government bond yields have risen by 15 basis points since early July, suggesting limited further upside under easing expectations [9] - The 1-month HIBOR has surged to 2.77%, exerting pressure on Hong Kong equities, although the Hang Seng Index saw slight gains due to A-share strength [9] - The AH premium index remained low at 125, which limits the performance of Hong Kong stocks relative to A-shares [9]