Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week (08/18 - 08/22), the re - cast aluminum alloy ingot fluctuated strongly. The closing price of AD2511 increased by 0.05% to 20,175 yuan/ton, and the sales price of Baotai Group's ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 20,000 yuan/ton. The production cost of Fubao ADC12 increased by 121.4 yuan/ton to 19,832.8 yuan/ton, and the profit narrowed by 21.5 yuan/ton to 167.1 yuan/ton [2][13] - The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the price remains high. There are rumors of tax - refund cancellation policies in some regions, and the scrap aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The price of ADC12 is relatively strong, and the industry's comprehensive operating rate has slightly declined. The demand side has not improved significantly, but the traditional peak season for auto and motorcycle parts is approaching [3] - Considering the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the decline in the raw material inventory of some alloy ingot factories, the cost support is strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices and the arbitrage opportunity of going long on AD2511 and short on AL2511 [4][22] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Scrap aluminum arrival is scarce, and continuously monitor the implementation of the tax - refund cancellation policy - The re - cast aluminum alloy ingot fluctuated strongly last week. The prices of some scrap aluminum in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton, while the FOB price of Malaysian scrap aluminum increased by 5 US dollars/ton to 2,165 US dollars/ton. The production cost of Fubao ADC12 increased, and the profit narrowed [13][14] - The scrap aluminum market supply is tight, and the price is high. There are rumors of tax - refund cancellation policies in Anhui and Jiangxi. The scrap aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to the game between scrap aluminum holders and recycled aluminum plants. The inventory of scrap aluminum has slightly accumulated, but it is difficult to continue to accumulate. The demand for imported raw materials is expected to increase [16][18] - The price of ADC12 is relatively strong. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy is stronger than that of electrolytic aluminum. There are regional production stoppages and suspension of shipments in Anhui and Jiangxi, and the industry's comprehensive operating rate has slightly declined. The demand side has not improved significantly, but the traditional peak season for auto and motorcycle parts is approaching, and the price of aluminum alloy ingots is likely to rise [19] 2. Review of industry news during the week - Four ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a notice to regulate investment - promotion behaviors, requiring the rectification of illegal fiscal returns and subsidies in local investment - promotion [23] - The US government announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products, and the new tariff list took effect on August 18 [23] 3. Monitoring of key high - frequency data in the industrial chain 3.1 Scrap aluminum: Tight arrival, slight inventory accumulation - The monthly production and shipment volume data of Chinese scrap aluminum in recent years are presented, showing the overall production and shipment trends. The weekly procurement volume of scrap aluminum traders and the inventory and arrival retention of scrap aluminum traders are also monitored. The monthly scrap aluminum inventory of cast aluminum alloy factories shows that some alloy ingot factories' raw material inventory has decreased [26][27][33] - The price trend of Foshan crushed raw aluminum and the refined - scrap price difference are monitored, indicating that the price of scrap aluminum is relatively strong compared to primary aluminum [34] 3.2 ADC12: Strong price, high social inventory - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy futures main contract, the term structure of SHFE cast aluminum alloy, the basis of Baotai ADC12, and the sales price of Baotai ADC12 are monitored. The price of ADC12 is relatively strong, and the profit of production has slightly narrowed [35][37][38] - The price difference between ADC12 and A00 in Foshan, the production and operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rate of leading recycled aluminum casting enterprises, the social inventory and in - factory inventory of aluminum alloy ingots, and the daily production profit of recycled aluminum alloy and the instant profit of imported ADC12 are monitored [42][46][47] 3.3 Downstream: The operating rate of semi - steel tires has recovered, and pay attention to the realization of peak - season demand - The monthly consumption of recycled aluminum casting, the production of Chinese automobiles, new - energy vehicles, and fuel vehicles, the automobile inventory warning index, the production of Chinese motorcycles, and the operating rates of Chinese semi - steel tires and all - steel tires are monitored. The operating rate of semi - steel tires has recovered, and the traditional peak season for auto and motorcycle parts is approaching [56][58][65]
废铝偏紧给予支撑，关注税返退坡情况
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-24 08:42