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固收专题:美联储鸽派,转债行情再增利好
KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-24 09:12

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The current upward trend in the market may continue considering the favorable industry trends, abundant liquidity in the macro - environment, and the dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve [5][6]. - For AI and humanoid robots, the industry trends are clearly certain, and the trends are further strengthened with the explosion of computing power demand and continuous technological iteration and mass - production preparations of robots. Chinese enterprises' competitiveness has significantly increased, and the domestic chain is expected to gain a larger market share and value [5]. - In the current new upward cycle of convertible bonds, as the convertible bond market gradually rises and is in a combination of "high convertible bond price and moderate conversion premium rate", it is recommended to participate in equity - like convertible bonds of 120 yuan and above, focusing on the returns from the rise of the underlying stocks of convertible bonds [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Large - scale Asset Performance: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All - A Index rose 3.49% and 3.87% respectively, with the average daily trading volume of the whole market reaching 2.59 trillion yuan. In the industry, communication, electronics, comprehensive, and computer sectors performed well. The S&P 500 rose 0.27%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.58%, fluctuating under the weak US employment and the dovish Federal Reserve [2]. - Convertible Bond Market Performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.83%. As of August 22, 2025, the median values of convertible bond price, conversion premium rate, and pure bond premium rate were 135 yuan, 27%, and 28% respectively. Some convertible bonds were subject to early redemption or non - early redemption, and some were subject to downward revision or non - downward revision of terms [2][3]. Market Dynamics - On August 22, 2025, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at the Jackson Hole meeting that the Fed might cut interest rates in the next few months despite the current inflationary risks, which was beneficial to equity risk assets [4]. - On August 19, 2025, Unitree Technology released a preview poster of a new humanoid robot, indicating a good trend in the humanoid robot industry [4]. - On August 21, 2025, DeepSeek's official Weibo message about a new domestic chip design drove up the domestic computing power chain [4]. - On August 22, 2025, it was reported that NVIDIA might have instructed its suppliers to stop producing products related to the H20 chip, and domestic computing power was expected to gradually replace it [4]. - Next - week events to watch include NVIDIA's Q2 earnings report, Huawei's new product launches, the HarmonyOS ecological conference, and the August PMI index [4]. Convertible Bond View - The convertible bond market continued its upward trend, mainly driven by the possible halt of NVIDIA's H20 production and the news about the next - generation domestic chip design, which might mean that domestic computing power chips could gradually replace NVIDIA's products and boost the expectations of the entire domestic chain. The humanoid robot industry also showed good development trends [5]. - Recommended Beneficiary Targets: Stable targets include Shanghai Bank, Changshu Bank, Hua'an, and Muyuan convertible bonds; flexible targets include Outech, Downturn, Jizhi, Yinlun, Yongsi, Dinglong, Limin, and Zhongchong Convertible Bond 2 [6].