Guohai Securities·2025-08-24 09:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which is likely to support aluminum prices [6] - Downstream aluminum processing rates are recovering, indicating a potential increase in demand as the industry approaches the peak season [9] - Current low inventory levels and reduced aluminum supply are expected to provide price support [9] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of August 22, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $2,622.0 per ton, while the Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is ¥20,630.0 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of ¥140.0 per ton [19] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is ¥20,750.0 per ton, up ¥70.0 from the previous week [19] 2. Production - In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production reached 3.721 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.2 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 16.8 million tons [52] - The alumina production in July 2025 was 7.650 million tons, up 39.2 million tons month-on-month and 80.8 million tons year-on-year [52] 3. Inventory - As of August 21, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is 596,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 900 tons [7] - The aluminum rod inventory in major consumption areas is 124,500 tons, down 1,400 tons week-on-week, indicating a declining trend [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 are as follows: China Hongqiao at ¥2.62, Tianshan Aluminum at ¥1.12, Shenhuo Co. at ¥2.13, China Aluminum at ¥0.91, and Yun Aluminum at ¥2.00 [5] 5. Demand - Downstream enterprises are increasing their inventory levels in anticipation of upcoming peak season orders, although the overall demand remains in a recovery phase [7] - The aluminum processing industry is experiencing a gradual revival, with the operating rate recorded at 50.5% as of August 21 [61]