Changjiang Securities·2025-08-24 09:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has somewhat boosted market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased, leading to a higher probability of relaxed industrial policies, with the timing being the only question [5] - The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties [5] - The current stock positions are not far from the bottom premium, and the overall market valuation uplift provides room for rebound [5] - Focus on leading real estate companies with low inventory, good locations, and product strength, as well as leading brokerage, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies with stable cash flow [5] Market Performance - This week, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 1.35%, with an excess return relative to the CSI 300 of -2.83%, ranking 29th out of 32 [6][15] - Year-to-date, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index has increased by 6.38%, with an excess return of -4.88%, ranking 27th out of 32 [6][15] - The real estate sector performed moderately this week, with declines in both development and rental categories, while property management showed mixed results [6] Policy Updates - The central government emphasized the need for strong measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market, including urban renewal and the renovation of old housing [7][18] - Local policies in Chengdu include optimizing housing provident fund policies, such as lowering down payment ratios and increasing loan limits [7][18] Sales Data - New home sales in sample cities remain low year-on-year, while second-hand home sales show marginal improvement [8] - For the week, new home transaction area in 37 cities decreased by 18.5% year-on-year, while second-hand home transaction area in 19 cities increased by 1.1% year-on-year [8] Market Dynamics - Since September last year, the stock and real estate markets have generally risen in sync, but since Q2 this year, the divergence has increased, with second-hand housing prices under pressure [9] - Long-term, both markets reflect fundamental factors and are significantly positively correlated, but this should not be interpreted as a causal relationship [9] - Short-term, the divergence indicates different risk appetites, with stock market risk appetite rising due to regulatory easing and capital inflows, while real estate risk appetite has not sustained [9]