A股多头格局延续，关注中报季扰动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "volatile" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the overall stock market remains bullish, but attention should be paid to the risks of some over - rising companies during the interim report season. Although there are fundamental pressures in the short term, the stock market does not price them more. After Powell's dovish speech, the expectation of loose liquidity may further boost risk appetite, and the bullish pattern of the stock index will be maintained in the short term [3][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - week View and Overview of Macro Key Events 3.1.1 Next - week View - The overall stock market remains bullish in the short term, but attention should be paid to the performance of interim reports. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached the third - highest level in history, and the trading volume has reached an average daily level of 2.5 trillion yuan. The "bull market expectation" has gained more consensus. Powell's dovish speech may boost risk appetite, but risks of over - rising companies during the interim report season should be noted [3][11] 3.1.2 This - week Key Event Concerns - August 18th: The central bank aims to stimulate the vitality of the movable property financing market; the China Index Academy reported that in July, the second - hand housing price dropped by 0.77% month - on - month; the State Council emphasized measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market [12][13][14] - August 19th: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year - on - year; Shanghai's private enterprises' exports increased significantly; the central bank added 100 billion yuan in re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses [15][17][18] - August 20th: The LPR remained unchanged in August; the national leaders emphasized promoting major projects such as the Yaxia Hydropower Project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway [19][20] - August 21st: The total electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%; 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments are expected to be implemented [21][23] - August 22nd: The national leaders will attend relevant activities of the SCO Summit; the State Council executive meeting heard a report on the implementation of equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement policies [24][25] 3.2 One - week Market Quotes Overview 3.2.1 Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From August 18th to 22nd, the global stock market denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 0.34%, with developed markets (+0.44%) > frontier markets (-0.24%) > emerging markets (-0.46%). The Swiss stock market led the world with a 2.14% increase, while the Taiwanese stock market had the worst performance with a 4.93% decline [2][26] 3.2.2 Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - Chinese equity assets rose significantly. A - shares > Chinese concept stocks > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.588 trillion yuan, an increase of 485.8 billion yuan from last week. Most indices rose by more than 3%, with the STAR 50 rising 13.31% and the SSE 50 rising 3.38% [2][29] 3.2.3 Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - Most GICS primary industries in the global market rose, with the energy sector leading (+2.16%) and the information technology sector performing poorly (-1.62%). In the Chinese market, the information technology sector led the rise (+8.68%), and the real estate sector lagged (+0.75%) [33] 3.2.4 Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC Primary Industries - Among A - share CITIC primary industries, 30 rose (22 last week) and 0 fell (8 last week). The leading industry][ was communication (+10.47%), and the industry that underperformed the most was real estate (+0.98%) [34] 3.2.5 Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles - The large - cap growth style was dominant. The growth style outperformed the value style, and the market - cap style favored large - caps [39] 3.2.6 Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis - Relevant charts show the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [43][44] 3.3 Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview 3.3.1 Broad - based Index Valuation - Valuation data of various broad - based indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 100, etc., including PE, PB, and their changes during the year are presented [46] 3.3.2 Primary Industry Valuation - Valuation data of various primary industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc., including PE, PB, and their changes during the year are presented [47] 3.3.3 Equity Risk Premium of Broad - based Indices - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 declined rapidly this week [48][53] 3.3.4 Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast of Broad - based Indices - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 7.90%, and in 2026, it was adjusted up to 8.20%; for the CSI 500, the 2025 expected earnings growth rate was adjusted up to 32.41%, and in 2026, it was adjusted up to 16.68%; for the CSI 1000, the 2025 expected earnings growth rate was adjusted up to 41.82%, and in 2026, it was adjusted down to 18.04% [54] 3.4 Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking 3.4.1 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year and 1 - year bond yields rose, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 97.7, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.17 [62] 3.4.2 Tracking of Trading - type Funds - The average daily northbound trading volume increased by 66.8 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 83.2 billion yuan [65] 3.4.3 Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - There are 29 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 1 billion shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 increased by 760 million shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 80 million shares, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 2.4 billion shares [67][68][70] 3.5 Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data 3.5.1 Supply Side - The coking start - up rate rebounded [73] 3.5.2 Consumption Side - Real estate transactions remained sluggish, but the year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales rebounded, and the crude oil price dropped to around $68 per barrel [81][89] 3.5.3 Inflation Observation - The price of production materials rebounded from a low level, while agricultural product prices reached a new low for the year [91][92]