量化择时周报：牛市思维，行业如何配置？-20250824

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a bullish market sentiment, suggesting that investors should continue to accumulate positions during dips as long as the market maintains a positive profit effect [1][2][3] - The current profit effect value is reported at 5.22%, indicating a strong market environment, and the recommendation is to hold high positions until the profit effect turns negative [2][10] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including innovative pharmaceuticals and securities insurance, which are expected to benefit from ongoing upward trends [2][10] Market Overview - The Wind All A index is currently in an upward trend, with the short-term moving average (20-day) at 5752 points and the long-term moving average (120-day) at 5271 points, resulting in a distance of 9.12% between the two [2][10] - The overall market saw significant gains, with the Wind All A index rising by 3.87% last week, and small-cap stocks (CSI 2000) increasing by 3.23% [1][9] - The report highlights strong performance in the telecommunications and electronics sectors, with telecommunications stocks rising by 10.47% [1][9] Investment Strategy - The report recommends maintaining an 80% position in absolute return products based on the Wind All A index, as the current PE ratio is at the 85th percentile, indicating a moderate valuation level [3][10] - The focus for mid-term investments should be on sectors that are expected to experience a turnaround, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals and securities insurance, alongside policy-driven sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals [2][10] - The Two Beta model continues to recommend technology sectors, specifically military computing and battery technologies, while short-term signals suggest a potential rebound for gold stocks after adjustments [2][10]