大炼化周报：长丝需求有所回暖，库存、产销情况改善-20250824

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as indicated by the report's overall outlook on the refining sector [137]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in demand for polyester filament, with improvements in inventory and production-sales conditions [2]. - The Brent crude oil price averaged $66.83 per barrel as of August 22, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.75% [2][3]. - Domestic refining project price differentials increased to 2431.20 CNY/ton, up by 29.59 CNY/ton (1.23%) week-on-week, while international differentials decreased to 1080.63 CNY/ton, down by 29.81 CNY/ton (-2.68%) [3]. Refining Sector Summary - The market remains cautious due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation, while expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have provided some support to oil prices [2]. - The report notes that the prices of refined products in the domestic market have slightly decreased, while international refined product prices have generally increased [2]. - The stock performance of six major private refining companies showed significant gains, with Hengli Petrochemical rising by 12.72% over the week and 14.92% over the month [2][124]. Chemical Sector Summary - The chemical sector experienced mixed price movements, with some products seeing price increases due to supply constraints [2]. - Polyethylene prices showed stability, while EVA prices increased slightly due to supply reductions from maintenance activities [2][46]. - The report indicates that the overall price differentials for various chemical products are stable, with some products experiencing widening differentials due to supply issues [2][46]. Polyester Sector Summary - The polyester industry saw a general price increase, particularly in filament yarn, driven by production cuts and increased downstream purchasing [2][97]. - The report mentions that the average price for polyester filament yarn (POY) is 6775.00 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 57.14 CNY/ton [97]. - The inventory levels for polyester filament yarn have decreased, indicating improved market conditions [97]. Market Performance Summary - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, noting significant increases in their stock prices over various time frames [124][127]. - The overall performance of the refining index has outpaced the broader market indices, indicating strong sector performance [125].