有色金属行业周报（20250818-20250822）：美联储降息预期升温，金属价格有望支撑-20250824

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, citing an increase in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is likely to support metal prices [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that Powell's statements may strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts, potentially leading to an upward trend in precious metal prices, particularly gold [4]. - There is an optimistic outlook for aluminum prices due to improving macroeconomic conditions and a decrease in aluminum inventory, indicating a potential recovery in market consumption as the peak season approaches [4]. - The report highlights significant corporate actions, such as China Hongqiao's substantial share buyback, reflecting confidence in future growth [4]. - Focus is placed on the acquisition by Jiaozuo Wanfang of a majority stake in Sanmenxia Aluminum, which is expected to enhance the company's integrated operations [4]. - The report notes that Shenhui Co. has shown a recovery in aluminum profits, driven by rising aluminum prices despite a decline in net profit year-on-year [4]. Industry Data Summary Industrial Metals - The report indicates that the domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, with a reported inventory of 596,000 tons as of August 21, down by 11,000 tons from the previous week [4]. - The report also mentions that the average daily production of electrolytic aluminum in China is projected to remain stable, with a focus on monitoring inventory trends [4]. Precious Metals - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector, such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Zhongjin Gold, as well as silver companies like Xinyi Silver and Hunan Silver [5]. Tungsten and Other Metals - The report notes a significant increase in tungsten exports, with a year-on-year growth of 25.2% in July, indicating a continued upward trend in tungsten prices [6][8]. - The report suggests that companies involved in cobalt and lithium production may benefit from rising prices and demand in the market [8].