KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-24 10:56Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that thermal coal prices are rebounding, aiming for a target of 750 CNY per ton, with a current price of 704 CNY per ton as of August 22, 2025, reflecting a 15.6% increase from the lowest price of 609 CNY per ton earlier this year [4][5] - The report emphasizes that both thermal coal and coking coal prices have reached a turning point, with expectations for further price recovery [5][13] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Market - As of August 22, 2025, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 704 CNY/ton, with a 15.6% increase from the year's lowest price of 609 CNY/ton [4] - The operating rate of 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81.7%, indicating a relatively low supply level [4] - Port inventories have decreased by 29.82% from the highest level of 3,316.3 million tons earlier this year to 2,327.4 million tons [4] - The daily consumption of coal remains high during the summer, with the methanol operating rate at 80.65%, reflecting strong demand [4] Coking Coal Market - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port is 1,610 CNY/ton, rebounding from a low of 1,230 CNY/ton in early July, with a significant increase of 61.61% in futures prices [4][5] - The report notes a tightening supply expectation due to regulatory measures on overproduction in coal mines [5] Investment Logic - The report suggests that the current thermal coal price has surpassed the second target price of around 700 CNY, with expectations to reach the third target price of 750 CNY, which is the breakeven point for coal and power generation companies [5][13] - Coking coal prices are expected to be influenced more by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][13] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment lines in the coal sector: 1. Cycle logic: Companies like Jinko Coal and Yancoal 2. Dividend logic: Companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Companies like Shenhua Holdings and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Companies like Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [6][14]