鲍威尔鸽派发言，美元指数走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Powell's unexpectedly dovish speech at the central bank annual meeting changed market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. The Fed may accelerate the interest - rate cut in September, and the US dollar index will trend downward [33][34] - The geopolitical situation is evolving towards marginal easing, but the Russia - Ukraine negotiation is difficult to reach an agreement in the short term [2][11][13] - The Fed's internal differences are large, and the Trump administration's intervention in the Fed is increasing. Next year, the dovish lineup of the Fed will increase, and monetary policy will enter a new easing stage [2][11] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high. Most global stock markets rose, and most bond yields declined. The yield of US Treasury bonds dropped to 4.25%. The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 97.7, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. Gold prices rose 1.1% to $3371 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 14.2, the spot commodity index closed down, and Brent crude oil rose 0.7% to $68.3 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Most global stock markets rose. The S&P 500 index rose 0.27%, most European stock markets closed up, most emerging - market stock markets rose, the Shanghai Composite Index soared 3.49%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.27%, and the Nikkei 225 index fell 1.72% [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - Most global bond yields declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping to 4.25%. Most euro - zone government bond yields declined, and emerging - market bond yields showed mixed performance. The yield curve of US Treasury bonds became steeper, and the yield of Japanese government bonds continued to rise. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield rose to 1.787%, and the inversion of the China - US interest - rate spread decreased to 246bp [14][17][19][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 97.7, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. The offshore RMB rose 0.23%, the euro rose 0.13%, the pound fell 0.2%, the yen rose 0.17%, the Swiss franc rose 0.66%, and the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, real, and Thai baht depreciated, while the peso, Korean won, and rand appreciated [24][25][27] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 1.1% to $3371 per ounce, and Brent crude oil rose 0.7% to $68.3 per barrel. The VIX index dropped to 14.2, and the spot commodity index closed down. Gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and oil prices are difficult to rise continuously [28][29] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - Powell's speech at the central bank annual meeting was unexpectedly dovish. The Fed's policy focus may shift to the unemployment rate, and the US dollar index will trend downward [30][33][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: US new home sales in July, UK market closed for one day - Tuesday: US housing price index in June, durable goods orders in July, and Conference Board consumer confidence index in August - Wednesday: Germany's Gfk consumer confidence index in September - Thursday: US initial jobless claims for the week, revised Q2 GDP, and ECB interest - rate meeting minutes - Friday: US core PCE in July [35]