如何理解鲍威尔在全球央行年会上的发言：9月降息或无疑，四季度仍有降息可能

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference shifted focus from inflation stability to employment concerns, indicating a dovish stance[2] - The economic data for August is expected to show "moderate inflation and weak employment," reinforcing the likelihood of a rate cut in September[2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to be gradual, with a potential increase in inflation by 1.2%-1.4% due to tariff policies, which may hinder rate cuts in Q1 next year[2][9] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - A rate cut in September is highly probable, with another potential cut in Q4 to address economic downturn risks[2][9] - Powell emphasized that monetary policy must be forward-looking, considering its lagging effects on the economy[9] - The Fed's dual mandate now prioritizes employment over inflation, reflecting a significant policy shift[9] Group 3: Labor Market Insights - The July non-farm payroll data was revised down significantly, indicating a more substantial cooling in the labor market than expected[9] - The unemployment rate remains stable, but the balance in the labor market is weakening, increasing the risk of job losses[9] - The labor market's cooling trend aligns with a noticeable slowdown in economic growth, primarily driven by consumer spending[9]