基础化工行业周报：“反内卷”政策下，尿素景气度有望改善-20250824

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve the market conditions for urea, with outdated production capacity being gradually eliminated, leading to a better supply-demand balance in the urea market [7][8] - The basic chemical industry saw a weekly increase of 2.86% from August 18 to August 22, 2025, ranking 15th among all Shenwan first-level industries [10] Industry Overview - From August 18 to August 22, 2025, the basic chemical industry experienced a weekly increase of 2.86%, with the top five stocks in terms of weekly gains being Zhen'an Technology, Feilu Co., Qide New Materials, Hangzhou High-tech, and *ST Jintai. Conversely, the top five stocks with the largest weekly declines included Shangwei New Materials, Weike Technology, New Asia Strong, Zhongxin Fluorine Materials, and Meilian New Materials [10] Urea Subsector - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to enhance the urea market's outlook. As of June 23, 2025, a notification was issued to assess outdated equipment in the petrochemical and chemical industry, targeting production facilities that have reached their design lifespan or have been in operation for over 20 years. The elimination of outdated capacity is expected to be a core measure of the "anti-involution" policy. Notably, coal-based urea production capacity over 20 years old accounts for 18.13% of the total [7][11] - Urea is primarily used as nitrogen fertilizer in agriculture, indicating a relatively inelastic demand. Therefore, the supply-demand dynamics for urea are expected to improve under the "anti-involution" policy [7][11]