鲍威尔2025年杰克逊霍尔年会演讲：“临阵”转鸽

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Powell's speech indicates a shift to a "neutral dovish" stance, highlighting a "fragile balance" in the labor market with rising unemployment risks[2] - The U.S. economy's growth rate slowed to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, half of the 2024 rate, with average monthly job additions dropping to 35,000 from 168,000 in 2024[16] - Inflation concerns persist, with July PCE at 2.6% and core PCE at 2.9%, while tariff-induced inflation effects are evident but expected to be "one-time" adjustments[20] Group 2: Monetary Policy Framework - The Federal Reserve's long-term monetary policy framework has been revised to emphasize a 2% inflation target and broad maximum employment goals[3] - The 2025 statement reflects a return to a more traditional framework, moving away from the "average inflation targeting" introduced in 2020[24] - The Fed's dual mandate requires balancing inflation and employment risks, particularly in the context of "stagflation" challenges[3] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Following Powell's remarks, the implied probability of a September rate cut surged from 72% to 94%, with expected cuts increasing from 1.9 to 2.2 times in 2025[4] - The market anticipates three rate cuts by the end of 2026, up from an earlier estimate of five[4] - The key to the September rate cut's realization hinges on the upcoming non-farm payroll report and inflation data[39]