KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-24 11:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage index increased by 3.3% from August 18 to August 22, ranking 10th among primary sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.9 percentage points. Other liquor categories (+8.2%), soft drinks (+5.1%), and liquor (+3.6%) performed relatively better [11][12] - The current market liquidity is ample, pushing the valuation center of equity assets upward. The liquor sector, being a previously oversold category, has seen valuation improvements ahead of a recovery in fundamentals. Despite being under demand pressure, the liquor sector shows signs of improvement, with some brands performing better in August compared to June and July [11][12] - The report suggests focusing on three lines of investment: national mid-to-high-end recovery (e.g., Shede Liquor, Shanxi Fenjiu), regional leaders (e.g., Gujing Gongjiu, Jiansi Yuan), and high-end liquor valuation recovery (e.g., Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai). Additionally, attention should be given to new consumption targets with strong growth potential [11][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage index's performance from August 18 to August 22 was 3.3%, ranking 10th out of 28 industries, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.9 percentage points. Within the sub-industries, other liquor categories (+8.2%), soft drinks (+5.1%), and liquor (+3.6%) led the performance [12][13] Upstream Data - As of August 19, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $4036 per ton, up 0.6% month-on-month and up 15.9% year-on-year. Conversely, the domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 5.9% year-on-year, indicating a downward trend in domestic milk prices [17][18] - On August 23, the price of pork was 20.1 yuan per kilogram, down 27.3% year-on-year, while the price of live pigs was 13.7 yuan per kilogram, down 32.6% year-on-year [19][20] Recommended Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Wancheng Group, and Baijiu Co. Kweichow Moutai is expected to deepen its reform process and emphasize sustainable development despite short-term demand pressure. Shanxi Fenjiu has high mid-term growth certainty, while Ximai Food is expanding new channels and improving profitability [4]