洽洽食品（002557）：2025年上半年渠道结构调整、成本压力显著

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][10][13] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.75 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90 million yuan, down 73.7% year-on-year [8][10] - The revenue decline was primarily due to the adjustment of channel structures and the impact of the Spring Festival timing, with a recovery in revenue growth observed in the second quarter of 2025 [8][9] - The company is actively adjusting its channel structure and increasing cooperation with emerging channels, leading to a significant increase in direct sales channels, including e-commerce, which saw a year-on-year growth of 63.0% [8][9] Revenue Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 27.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a breakdown showing a decline in various product categories: sunflower seeds down 4.4%, nuts down 7.0%, and other categories down 13.8% [8] - In the second quarter of 2025, revenue showed a recovery with a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, benefiting from a low base in the previous year [8][9] - The revenue from traditional channels decreased by 18.5%, while direct sales channels, including e-commerce, increased by 63.0%, with e-commerce accounting for 16.4% of total revenue [8][9] Profitability Summary - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 20.3%, a decrease of 8.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising costs of key raw materials [9] - The company faced significant cost pressures, with the gross profit margin improving to 21.4% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter, although it still showed a year-on-year decline [9] - The net profit margin for the second quarter of 2025 decreased by 8.0 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the impact of increased costs and expenses [9] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 7.38 billion yuan, 7.84 billion yuan, and 8.37 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.6%, 6.2%, and 6.7% [10][12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 404 million yuan, 648 million yuan, and 750 million yuan for the same years, with a significant decline of 52.5% in 2025 followed by a recovery in subsequent years [10][12] - The current stock price reflects the short-term cost pressures, and the company maintains a leading position in product quality and brand recognition, along with a high dividend payout ratio of 76% for 2024 [10][12]