多头减仓触发深度回调，下游采购创年内高点

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Bullish" [1] Core Views of the Report - Last week (08/18 - 08/22), lithium salt prices first rose and then fell. The closing prices of LC2509 and LC2511 decreased by 8.9% and 9.1% respectively, while the average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.5%. The prices of lithium hydroxide continued to rise [2][11]. - In July, China imported about 64,100 tons of lithium spodumene equivalent to LCE, a 32% increase from the previous month and a 10% increase from the same period last year. The domestic lithium ore inventory days have declined from the high but are still moderately high, about 4 months [2][14]. - The sharp decline in the futures market last week may be due to the forced liquidation of some high - leverage funds. The impact of increased imports on short - term supply - demand balance is limited. The short - term de - stocking fundamentals can provide bottom support, and downstream buying increased after the price correction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of buying on dips and positive spreads [3][14][15]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply Disturbance Not Fully Resolved, Downstream Buying Gradually Released - Lithium salt prices fluctuated last week. Futures prices decreased, while spot prices of lithium carbonate increased slightly, and lithium hydroxide prices continued to rise. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed [2][11]. - In July, China's lithium spodumene imports increased significantly. The domestic lithium ore inventory is still at a moderately high level [2][14]. - The short - term de - stocking fundamentals can support prices, and downstream buying is strong. Supply uncertainty remains, and it is advisable to look for buying opportunities on dips and positive spread opportunities [3][14][15]. 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Yichun Yinli of Jiangte Motor will resume production soon [16]. - In July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports decreased by 42.67% year - on - year, with significant declines from major suppliers such as Chile and Argentina [16]. - Premier African Minerals' Zulu lithium project has achieved a major breakthrough, producing marketable lithium spodumene concentrate and entering the refining optimization stage [16]. - A closed - door meeting on the lithium iron phosphate industry was held in Shenzhen to discuss solutions to over - capacity [17]. 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Declined - The spot price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased slightly, with the average price dropping from $940/ton to $934/ton, a 0.6% decline [12]. 3.2 Lithium Salt: Futures Prices Rose and Then Fell - Futures prices of lithium carbonate decreased, with LC2509 down 8.9% and LC2511 down 9.1%. Spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.5% [2][11][12]. 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Rebounded - The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium all showed a slight upward trend [12]. 3.4 Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate Slightly Increased in July - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China increased slightly in July, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a certain growth rate [44][48][50]