新疆大厂逐步复产，组件开标价格提升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry Silicon: Oscillation / Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. Although the fundamentals of industrial silicon are weakening marginally, the short - term price may fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and investors should pay attention to range - trading opportunities. For polysilicon, the price may run between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term and is expected to exceed 60,000 yuan/ton in the long term. The strategy is to be bullish on pullbacks, and consider 11 - 12 reverse - spread opportunities around - 2,000 yuan/ton [3][16] - The government's policy of regulating the photovoltaic industry competition order has an impact on the price of polysilicon and its upstream and downstream products. Although the component price has increased, the terminal demand is not optimistic, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be incremental policies [2][12][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - Industrial silicon: The Si2511 contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 8,745 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 8,450 yuan/ton. - Polysilicon: The PS2511 contract decreased by 1,335 yuan/ton to 51,405 yuan/ton week - on - week. The transaction price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 500 yuan/ton to 47,900 yuan/ton [8][9] 3.2 Xinjiang Large Factories Gradually Resume Production, and Component Bidding Prices Increase - Industrial Silicon: The futures main contract oscillated this week. Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan added 8, 3, and 2 furnaces respectively, Inner Mongolia added 1, and Gansu reduced 1. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.20 tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.40 tons. The eastern base of a large factory in Xinjiang resumed 8 furnaces this week with further plans, but the implementation needs to be observed. Southern production has reached its peak with no obvious increase in the future. Downstream maintains just - in - time procurement. It is estimated that the inventory of industrial silicon will decrease by about 10,000 tons in August. If the large factory's operation remains unchanged, it may accumulate about 30,000 tons from September to October and decrease by about 100,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. However, if the large factory fully resumes production, it may be difficult to reduce inventory during the dry season [10] - Organic Silicon: The price oscillated downward this week. The third - phase device of Tangshan Sanyou stopped, and the device in Hoshine's Sichuan area resumed production. The overall enterprise operating rate was 76.03%, with a weekly output of 50,300 tons, a decrease of 2.14% week - on - week. The inventory was 48,800 tons, an increase of 0.62% week - on - week. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [11] - Polysilicon: The futures main contract oscillated this week. Six ministries jointly held a photovoltaic industry symposium, and on Friday, Huadian's 20GW component centralized procurement bid opened, with component prices rising significantly, driving up upstream prices. The bid price of second - tier enterprises' dense material increased to 48 yuan/kg, and that of first - tier enterprises increased to 50 - 53 yuan/kg. To maintain prices, production and sales control in the polysilicon segment are necessary. The production in August was between 125,000 - 130,000 tons. The production in September is highly uncertain, with a pessimistic estimate of up to 140,000 tons and an optimistic estimate of 120,000 tons, still in surplus [12] - Silicon Wafers: The quotation increased this week. After the symposium, the association gave a new guidance price for silicon wafers on the 20th afternoon. Silicon wafer enterprises adjusted their quotes to the guidance price, with M10/G12R/G12 models rising to 1.25/1.40/1.60 yuan/piece. As of August 21, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 17.41GW, a decrease of 2.39GW. The production schedule in August was 53GW, and it is expected to be flat in September [13] - Battery Cells: The price remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 models were 0.29/0.285/0.285 yuan/watt. As of August 18, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 5.81GW, an increase of 0.83GW. The domestic production schedule of Chinese enterprises in August was about 58GW. Some battery enterprises showed an intention to raise prices, with an expected increase to over 0.3 yuan/watt [13] - Components: The price oscillated this week. New orders were few, mainly fulfilling previous orders. The delivery price of centralized projects was between 0.62 - 0.68 yuan/watt, and the distributed spot price was stagnant, with a small amount of transactions above 0.7 yuan/watt. After the symposium, component prices are expected to rise. Huadian's 20GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement bid opened, with an average price of 0.71 yuan/watt for the first - stage bid, which is lower than expected but can cover the cost. With policy support, the component bidding price is expected to exceed 0.7 yuan/watt, but the terminal demand is not optimistic [14] 3.3 Investment Suggestions - Industrial Silicon: Pay attention to the resumption progress of large factories in Xinjiang. Although the fundamentals are weakening, the price may fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton in the short term due to the expectation of US interest rate cuts and the "anti - involution" of the domestic photovoltaic industry chain. Look for range - trading opportunities [3][16] - Polysilicon: The futures price is strongly supported by the spot transaction price of leading enterprises. In the short term, the price may run between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton and is expected to exceed 60,000 yuan/ton in the long term. Be bullish on pullbacks and consider 11 - 12 reverse - spread opportunities around - 2,000 yuan/ton [3][16] 3.4 Hot News - On August 22, Huadian Group's 20GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement bid opened, with an average price of 0.71 yuan/W for the first - stage bid and 0.746 yuan/W for the second - stage bid [17] - The photovoltaic industry issued an initiative to strengthen self - discipline and maintain a fair competition market order [17] - On August 19, six ministries jointly held a photovoltaic industry symposium to regulate the competition order, including strengthening industrial regulation, curbing low - price competition, standardizing product quality, and supporting industry self - discipline [18] 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - Industrial Silicon: Includes data on prices, production, and inventory such as the price of oxygen - blown 553 and 99 silicon, weekly production in different regions, and social and factory inventories [8][9][10] - Organic Silicon: Covers data on the price, profit, inventory, and production of DMC [10][11] - Polysilicon: Involves data on spot prices, gross profit, factory inventory, and enterprise production [12] - Silicon Wafers: Includes data on spot prices, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise production [13] - Battery Cells: Covers data on spot prices, average net profit, export factory inventory, and enterprise production [13] - Components: Involves data on spot prices, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise production [14]