铜行业周报：7月家用空调产量同比持平，好于此前排产预计数-20250824

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [7]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic sentiment is improving, and copper prices are expected to strengthen starting in September 2025. The SHFE copper closing price is 78,690 RMB/ton, down 0.47% from August 15, while the LME copper closing price is 9,797 USD/ton, up 0.37% from the same date [2]. - Domestic copper demand is anticipated to improve post-September, driven by the end of the off-season and increased demand from sectors such as power grids and air conditioning [2][5]. - The report suggests that with tightening supply and improving demand, copper prices are likely to continue rising in 2025 [5]. Supply and Demand Summary - Supply: - Global copper concentrate production in June increased by 3.6% year-on-year but decreased by 4.1% month-on-month. China's copper concentrate production in May was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [3][49]. - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 4.9% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 0.2% [3][26]. - Demand: - In July, the production of household air conditioners was 16.12 million units, down 0.01% year-on-year but higher than the previous forecast of 15.81 million units [4][92]. - The cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate of cable enterprises at 68.88%, down 0.42 percentage points week-on-week [4][73]. Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends the following companies for investment: Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [5][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate a favorable investment outlook, with all rated as "Accumulate" [6].