地方债周度跟踪：新增地方债发行提速，30Y减国债利差大幅走阔-20250824

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the next period. The current period (August 18 - August 24, 2025) saw a total issuance/net financing of RMB 369.15 billion/RMB 208.80 billion (previous period: RMB 91.432 billion/RMB -13.736 billion), and the next period (August 25 - August 31, 2025) is expected to have an issuance/net financing of RMB 351.597 billion/RMB 243.653 billion [2]. - The issuance of new local government bonds started to accelerate in the current period. As of August 22, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 73.1% and 69.3% of the annual quota respectively, higher than the same period in 2024 but comparable to 2023 [2]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds from August to September 2025 totals RMB 1.7503 trillion, including RMB 1.063 trillion of new special bonds [2]. - The current period saw the issuance of RMB 9.75 billion of special new special bonds, RMB 2.12 billion of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, and RMB 0.33 billion of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts [2]. - The spread between 10Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, while the spread between 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened significantly in the current period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased compared to the previous period. As of August 22, 2025, the spreads were 18.82BP and 21.25BP respectively, narrowing by 0.53BP and widening by 10.00BP compared to August 15, 2025 [2]. - The cost - effectiveness of exploiting the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds is not high at present [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period's local government bond issuance volume increased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period (August 18 - August 24, 2025) was RMB 369.15 billion, compared to RMB 91.432 billion in the previous period. The next period (August 25 - August 31, 2025) is expected to issue RMB 351.597 billion [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 17.35 years, longer than 12.42 years in the previous period (August 11 - August 17, 2025) [2][10]. - As of August 22, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 73.1% and 69.3% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 77.6% and 73.6%. In 2024, the cumulative issuance progress was 61.1%/52.1% and 67.7%/60.6%, and in 2023, it was 73.7%/69.0% and 80.7%/75.1% [2][18]. - As of August 22, 2025, 30 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of local government bonds of RMB 1.7503 trillion from August to September 2025 (RMB 1.0238 trillion in August and RMB 0.7265 trillion in September), including RMB 1.063 trillion of new special bonds [2][22]. - In the current period, RMB 9.75 billion of special new special bonds were issued, and the cumulative issuance reached RMB 90.52 billion. RMB 2.12 billion of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued, with a cumulative issuance of RMB 190.42 billion and a progress of 95.2%. RMB 0.33 billion of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued in Guizhou [2]. 3.2 This period's 30Y local government bond - treasury bond spread widened significantly, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of August 22, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 18.82BP and 21.25BP respectively, narrowing by 0.53BP and widening by 10.00BP compared to August 15, 2025, and were at the 49.40% and 83.60% historical quantiles since 2023 [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.62%, a decrease from 0.65% in the previous period [2]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Qingdao, Sichuan, and Qinghai are better than the national average [2]. - Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].