平安银行（000001）：零售结构调整或进入后半程

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Bank [2] Core Views - The bank's revenue for the first half of 2025 decreased by 10% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders down by 3.9% [5][7] - The bank's asset quality remains in line with expectations, with a slight decrease in the non-performing loan ratio to 1.05% and an increase in the provision coverage ratio to 238% [5][9] - The report highlights a shift in focus towards credit structure adjustment, indicating that the reduction in high-risk retail loans may be entering its later stages [7][9] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue is projected to decline from 164,699 million in 2023 to 134,676.6 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.19% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease slightly from 46,455 million in 2023 to 44,109.44 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -0.90% [6] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 11.37% in 2023 to 9.39% in 2025 [6] Revenue and Profitability Analysis - The decline in net interest income continues to pressure revenue, with a 9% year-on-year decrease in the first half of 2025 [7][8] - Non-interest income also saw a decline of 11% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has slowed compared to previous quarters [7] - The bank's net interest margin is reported at 1.8%, down 16 basis points year-on-year, with expectations of further pressure on loan pricing [9][12] Loan and Asset Quality - The bank's non-performing loan generation rate is estimated at 1.66% for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 20 basis points compared to 2024 [9] - The report indicates a continued focus on reducing high-risk retail loans, with a significant reduction in the volume of such loans observed [7][10] - The bank's total loans decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, with a net reduction of approximately 32 billion [7][10] Dividend Policy - The bank plans to maintain its mid-term dividend at 2.36 yuan per 10 shares, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 20.1% [7][9]