Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent AH premium has reached a six-year low, indicating sufficient liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, while the recent weakness in stock indices is primarily due to structural drag from the internet sector [1][6][7] - Looking ahead, three key factors are expected to drive the Hong Kong stock market: breakthroughs in AI technology catalyzing tech growth, potential unexpected inflows of foreign capital amid a backdrop of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and significant room for increased southbound capital allocation [1][18][26] - The report suggests that the Hong Kong market, benefiting from asset scarcity, is likely to continue attracting incremental capital, which will support upward market trends, with a focus on the more resilient Hang Seng Tech index during this industrial cycle [1][30] Group 2 - The report notes that since mid-June, the Hong Kong stock index has underperformed compared to the A-share index, with the Hang Seng AH premium index declining from 131.54 on June 19 to a low of 122.6 on August 15, marking a new low since May 2019 [7][8][11] - Despite the overall index weakness, approximately 76% of AH-listed stocks in Hong Kong have outperformed their A-share counterparts since mid-June, with an average excess return of about 10 percentage points [7][21] - The report emphasizes that the recent divergence between the AH premium and the performance of the two markets is directly related to the underperformance of the Hong Kong tech sector, particularly due to the scarcity of leading internet companies compared to their A-share counterparts [8][9][30] Group 3 - The report identifies three positive catalysts for the Hong Kong market: first, tech leaders are expected to benefit from new technological breakthroughs in AI, with companies like Alibaba and Tencent leading in multimodal large models [20][23] - Second, the potential for foreign capital to return to the Hong Kong market is highlighted, with signs of marginal improvement in foreign investment flows observed from May to July, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [24][25] - Third, there remains significant potential for increased southbound capital, with expectations that net inflows could exceed 1.2 trillion yuan for the year, driven by the attractiveness of scarce assets in the Hong Kong market [26][28] Group 4 - The report suggests that the Hong Kong tech sector is likely to be the main focus of market trends, benefiting from the AI cycle, with leading companies positioned across the entire AI value chain [30][31] - It also notes that the Hong Kong market's dividend policies and low interest rates are expected to attract more capital, particularly in new consumption and innovative pharmaceutical sectors, which are also relatively scarce compared to A-shares [30][31]
年内继续看好港股的三大理由
Haitong Securities International·2025-08-24 13:10