本期微观交易温度计读数继续回落4个百分点至46%

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer continued to decline by 4 percentage points to 46%, with most indicators falling to varying degrees, except for the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile [2][14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%, with 5 indicators in the over - heated range, 5 in the neutral range, and 10 in the cold range [3][18]. - Only the average percentile of trading heat increased slightly by 2 percentage points, while the average percentiles of institutional behavior, spread, and comparison ratio decreased [4][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer continued to decline by 4 percentage points to 46%. Most indicators fell, while the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile increased. High - congestion indicators include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the long - term Treasury bond trading volume ratio [2][14]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%. Among 20 micro - indicators, 5 were in the over - heated range, 5 in the neutral range, and 10 in the cold range. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate moved from the cold to the neutral range, while the fund duration and policy spread moved from the neutral to the cold range, and the allocation disk strength moved from the over - heated to the cold range [3][18]. 3.2.1. 1/10Y Treasury Bond Turnover Rate - In the trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 50%, the proportion in the neutral range rose to 33%, and the proportion in the cold range fell to 17%. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate percentile increased by 37 percentage points to 54% and moved from the cold to the neutral range, while other indicators such as the TL/T long - short ratio, the whole - market turnover rate, and the institutional leverage percentile declined [5][21]. 3.2.2. Fund Duration - In the institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%, the proportion in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 50%. Except for the 10 - percentage - point increase in the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile, other indicators fell. The fund duration percentile decreased by 31 percentage points to 37% and moved from the neutral to the cold range, and the allocation disk strength percentile decreased by 33 percentage points to 39% and moved from the over - heated to the cold range [6][24]. 3.2.3. Policy Spread - The 3 - year Treasury bond yield increased significantly, and the policy spread widened from 1bp to 11bp, with the percentile decreasing by 34 percentage points to 13% and moving from the neutral to the cold range. The credit spread narrowed slightly by 2bp to 51bp, the Agricultural Development - China Development spread remained at 4bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 3bp to 5bp. The average spread of the three remained at 20bp, and its percentile increased slightly by 1 percentage point to 46%, still in the neutral range [7][31]. 3.2.4. Commodity Comparison Ratio Percentile - The proportion of comparison ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. The stock - bond and commodity comparison ratio percentiles decreased by 4 and 1 percentage points to 23% and 0% respectively, while the real - estate comparison ratio percentile remained basically the same as the previous period [8][34].