商品期权周报：2025年第34周-20250824

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the activity, price changes, market volatility, and sentiment of the commodity options market in the 34th week of 2025 (August 18 - August 22). It suggests investors focus on trading opportunities in actively traded varieties and provides insights on potential risks and opportunities based on price movements and volatility [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Commodity Options Market Activity - Market activity declined compared to last week, with average daily trading volume at 6.46 million lots and average daily open interest at 7.32 million lots, down 26.6% and 28.23% respectively [1][6]. - Actively traded varieties included soda ash (590,000 lots), glass (510,000 lots), and palm oil (400,000 lots) [1][6]. - Three varieties saw trading volume growth of over 100%, with p-xylene (+1327%), synthetic rubber (+125%), and staple fiber (+122%) showing significant increases [1][6]. - Varieties with significant trading volume declines were rapeseed meal (-85%), rapeseed oil (-85%), and soybean oil (-72%) [1][6]. - Varieties with high average daily open interest were rebar (630,000 lots), soda ash (620,000 lots), and soybean meal (600,000 lots) [1][6]. - Varieties with rapid open interest growth were p-xylene (+188%), synthetic rubber (+77%), and polysilicon (+50%) [1][6]. 2. This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review - Underlying Price Changes: Most commodity option underlying futures declined, with 37 varieties closing lower for the week. High weekly gainers included caustic soda (+4.26%), p-xylene (+4.16%), and staple fiber (+3.34%); high weekly losers were lithium carbonate (-9.14%), soda ash (-4.95%), and ferrosilicon (-9.14%) [2][15]. - Market Volatility: The implied volatility of some commodity options declined weekly, with 39 varieties having current implied volatility below the 50th percentile of the past year. Varieties at historical highs included polysilicon, eggs, and industrial silicon; those at historical lows included the agricultural products sector and non-ferrous metals [2][15]. - Options Market Sentiment: Varieties such as lithium carbonate and soybean meal had high volume PCRs, indicating strong short-term bearish sentiment. Varieties like ethylene glycol, styrene, aluminum, and PTA had low volume PCRs, showing concentrated short-term bullish sentiment. Lithium carbonate, polysilicon, caustic soda, and soda ash had high open interest PCRs, suggesting high bearish sentiment; while styrene, ethylene glycol, nickel, and plastic had low open interest PCRs, indicating bullish sentiment accumulation [2][15]. 3. Key Data Overview of Major Varieties This chapter presents key data on major varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. - Energy: Data on crude oil, including trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and volume PCR, are presented through various charts [20][22][23]. - Chemicals: - PTA: Data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and volume PCR are presented through charts [26][27][29]. - Caustic Soda: Similar data are presented for caustic soda [35][36][38]. - Glass: Data on glass are presented in a similar manner [42][43][44]. - Soda Ash: Data on soda ash are presented through charts [48][49][52]. - Precious Metals: Data on silver, including trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and volume PCR, are presented through charts [54][55][56]. - Ferrous Metals: - Iron Ore: Data on iron ore are presented through charts [62][63][66]. - Silicomanganese: Similar data are presented for silicomanganese [70][71][72]. - Non-Ferrous Metals: - Copper: Data on copper are presented through charts [77][78][84]. - Alumina: Data on alumina are presented in a similar manner [93][88][90]. - Agricultural Products: - Soybean Meal: Data on soybean meal are presented through charts [94][96][98]. - Palm Oil: Similar data are presented for palm oil [102][110][103]. - Cotton: Data on cotton are presented through charts [111][112][113].