流动性和机构行为周度观察：资金面先紧后松，8月MLF净投放3000亿元-20250824

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From August 18 - 22, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net capital injection, with the treasury cash - deposit injection of 120 billion yuan and maturity of 220 billion yuan. Meanwhile, it announced a 600 - billion - yuan MLF injection on the 25th. Affected by tax payment outflows, the capital market tightened first and then eased [2]. - From August 18 - 24, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) rose overall, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market declined. From August 25 - 31, 2025, the net payment of government bonds is expected to be 211.5 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 751.8 billion yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Capital Market - In August 2025, the net MLF injection was 300 billion yuan. From August 18 - 22, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 1265.2 billion yuan. Due to factors like tax payment outflows on August 19 and 20, the capital market was under pressure, and the daily net injection of 7 - day reverse repurchases exceeded 40 billion yuan on both days. From August 25 - 29, 2077 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF will mature. A 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation will be carried out on August 25, resulting in a net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan in August [6]. - The capital market tightened first and then eased. From August 18 - 22, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.45% and 1.51% respectively, up 12.1 and 14.7 basis points compared to August 11 - 15. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.52% and 1.53% respectively, up 7.0 and 6.2 basis points. Affected by factors such as tax payment outflows and possible diversion of non - bank funds to the equity market, the capital interest rate increased marginally from August 18 - 20. As the tax payment disturbance ended and the central bank continued to inject funds, the capital interest rate began to decline on August 21. Looking ahead, although the capital is about to enter the end - of - month period, the net injections of repurchase and MLF in August both being 30 billion yuan indicate the central bank's clear attitude of caring for liquidity. Only short - term fluctuations are expected during the end - of - month period [7]. - The net payment scale of government bonds decreased. From August 18 - 24, the net payment of government bonds was about 294.8 billion yuan, about 115.6 billion yuan less than that from August 11 - 17. Among them, the net financing of national bonds was about 115.6 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 179.2 billion yuan. From August 25 - 31, the net payment of government bonds is expected to be 211.5 billion yuan, with the net financing of national bonds about - 100 million yuan and that of local government bonds about 211.6 billion yuan [8]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - The maturity yields of NCDs rose overall. As of August 22, 2025, the 1 - month and 3 - month NCD maturity yields were 1.4950% and 1.5500% respectively, up 4 and 3 basis points compared to August 15. The 1 - year NCD maturity yield was 1.6650%, up 3 basis points compared to August 15 [9]. - The net financing of NCDs remained negative. From August 18 - 24, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 245.5 billion yuan, compared with about - 132.5 billion yuan from August 11 - 17. From August 25 - 31, the maturity repayment of NCDs is expected to be 751.8 billion yuan, and the pressure of maturity renewal is slightly weaker than the previous week's 794.7 billion yuan [9]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market declined. From August 18 - 22, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.31%, compared with 107.83% from August 11 - 15. On August 22 and August 15, the calculated leverage ratios of the inter - bank bond market were about 107.57% and 107.68% respectively [10].