降息预期再度强化，看好有色板块

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the sector [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the strengthening expectation of interest rate cuts, which is expected to benefit the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly gold and industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2][6]. - The report highlights the strategic value of cobalt and the upward trend in cobalt prices, driven by increased demand and strategic reserves by the U.S. Department of Defense [8]. - The report suggests that the upcoming second round of interest rate cuts in September may lead to a quarterly resonance in gold stocks, recommending a shift towards increased allocation in this area [6][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Precious Metals - The report notes that gold prices are recovering due to signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, maintaining an allocation strategy towards gold stocks [6][8]. - It mentions that the A-share bull market does not necessarily mean gold will underperform, as the fundamental drivers of gold prices remain intact [6][8]. - The report identifies key stocks to watch, including Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Shandong Gold Mining [6]. Industrial Metals - The report indicates that the expectation of interest rate cuts is catalyzing early investments in copper and aluminum equities [7][8]. - It discusses the divergence in price movements between international and domestic markets for copper and aluminum, with external prices rising while domestic prices face downward pressure due to concerns over domestic demand [7]. - The report highlights that the supply-demand dynamics for copper and aluminum are expected to stabilize, with potential for price recovery as economic conditions improve [7][8]. Strategic and Minor Metals - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, noting that the recent regulatory measures in China are expected to support price increases in these sectors [8]. - It highlights the recovery in demand for rare earth materials, particularly in the context of traditional peak seasons and improving export orders [8]. - The report also discusses the strategic value of cobalt, with a focus on its price recovery driven by supply constraints and increasing demand from the battery sector [8]. Market Performance - The report provides a market performance overview, indicating that the non-ferrous metal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market indices, with specific mention of the performance of various sub-sectors [16][19]. - It notes that the rare earth sector has shown significant gains, with a reported increase of 86.93% year-to-date [19]. Price Trends - The report details recent price movements in various metals, including a 0.4% increase in LME copper and a 0.7% increase in LME aluminum, while domestic prices for copper and aluminum have seen declines [25][27]. - It also mentions fluctuations in lithium prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate experiencing a 4.8% decrease [26][30]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential and dividend capabilities in the copper and aluminum sectors, as well as in strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten [8]. - It recommends specific stocks for investment based on their market positioning and growth prospects [8].