供需宽松，猪价承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of increasing theoretical pig出栏量 in the later stage remains unchanged. Starting from September, the month - on - month growth rate of出栏量 will increase, and the supply increment may exceed the seasonal performance of consumption. The industry is expected to enter the seasonal weight - gain stage in September, but the impact on supply will be limited due to the high level of pig出栏量. After September, terminal consumption will have a seasonal rebound, but overall, the pig supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose, and the operation idea is to be bearish with oscillations [1][18] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In August, the live pig spot price failed to continue the rebound at the end of July. It oscillated downward and hit a new low under the background of increased出栏 by the breeding side and weak consumption. The futures showed a trend of first rebounding and then falling. The near - month LH09 contract was most affected by the spot price decline and the premium on the futures, thus performing the weakest [3] 2. Pig Supply - Demand Analysis 2.1 Sow Inventory and Piglet出栏 Data Indicate Continued Increase in出栏 - The national sow inventory reached a low of 39.86 million in May 2024, then rebounded to a high of 40.8 million in November 2024, with an increase of 2.4% from the low to the high. By June 2025, it was 40.42 million, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. The potential supply of commercial pigs from February to September 2025 will maintain an increasing pattern. The number of piglets born by sample enterprises has generally been increasing since November 2024. Therefore, the theoretical出栏量 will continue to increase [5] 2.2 Feed Sales Data Verify the Increase in Pig Inventory - From October 2024 to January 2025, the sales of piglet feed and nursery feed decreased seasonally, but the decline was significantly lower than in previous years, indicating that piglets were less damaged in winter. The sales of finishing pig feed increased significantly month - on - month in March 2025, earlier than in previous years. The month - on - month increase in finishing pig feed sales from June to July 2025 was similar to that of last year, meaning that the potential出栏 increase in September will be similar to the same period last year [8] 2.3 Secondary Fattening is Restrained, Focus on the Industry's Weight - Gain Rhythm - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in 16 key provinces peaked in May and declined, with the decline accelerating from June to August, reaching the lowest level in the past 5 years. The decline was due to the decrease in the feed - to - meat ratio after the temperature rose and the government's policy guidance. Group pig出栏 showed a stable downward trend, while the average weight of散户出栏 increased. After August, the industry usually enters the stage of seasonally increasing the average出栏 weight, and there is room for the industry's average weight to increase [10] 2.4 Consumption Performance is Average, with Limited Boost to the Market - The national pig slaughter volume has increased significantly compared with last year, and the daily slaughter volume in August increased significantly compared with July, matching the increase in出栏 indicated by the piglet birth data 6 months ago. The fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises has been higher than last year for most of the time in 2025, but it has declined since July, indicating that the overall consumption increment is not obvious. The consumption in August 2025 was weak, and the consumption pressure from September to October will be greater than in previous years [12] 2.5 Feed Costs Decrease, but Pig Price Decline Compresses Profits - Since May 2024, domestic pigs have maintained a profitable state for nearly 14 months. Since August, the pig price has continued to decline, and the national average weight is close to the industry average cost. Although the cost has decreased, the low pig price has worsened the breeding profit [15] 3. Conclusion and Market Outlook - The pattern of increasing theoretical pig出栏量 in the later stage remains unchanged. Starting from September, the month - on - month growth rate of出栏量 will increase, and the supply increment may exceed the seasonal performance of consumption. The industry is expected to enter the seasonal weight - gain stage in September, but the impact on supply will be limited due to the high level of pig出栏量. After September, terminal consumption will have a seasonal rebound, but overall, the pig supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose, and the operation idea is to be bearish with oscillations [1][18]