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鲍威尔暗示9月降息
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-25 00:15

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Global central bank meeting, Powell's dovish speech, market's Fed rate - cut expectation heats up, boosting risk appetite and affecting multiple asset prices [13][17][58] - Multiple commodities are affected by various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and international events, showing different trends and investment opportunities [26][32][59] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to impose tariffs on imported furniture, and Powell hints at a September rate cut [12][13] - Gold price rose about 1% on Friday. Market priced in a 25bp rate cut in September and two rate cuts this year. But current positives can't break gold out of the consolidation [13] - Investment advice: Gold price will continue to fluctuate in the short - term [14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Iran's supreme leader rules out direct talks with the US, and the US vice - president says new sanctions on Russia are "not impossible" [15][16] - Powell's speech at the central bank annual meeting is dovish. The Fed's policy focus shifts to the labor market, and the US dollar index trends weaker [17] - Investment advice: The US dollar trends weaker [18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell signals a rate cut, and Canada cancels some retaliatory tariffs on US goods [19][20] - Market sentiment turns cautious initially, then risk appetite recovers after Powell's dovish speech. US stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [21] - Investment advice: Expect US stocks to fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to rate - cut expectations. Pay attention to Nvidia's earnings report and July PCE data next week [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Chinese leaders attend the SCO Summit - related events, and the State Council studies measures to release sports consumption potential [22][23] - A - shares are strong with increasing trading volume, showing a short - term bullish pattern. But beware of the test of mid - year reports [24] - Investment advice: Suggest balanced long positions in stock index futures [25] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - As of the end of July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity is 36.7 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly [26] - Coal price ends its rising trend and enters a weak consolidation. It is expected to fluctuate between 650 - 700 yuan in the future [26][27] - Investment advice: Coal price may decline slightly with the season. It is expected to fluctuate between 650 - 700 yuan [27] 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Guangxi acquires 20,000 existing commercial housing units [28] - Iron ore price continues to fluctuate. Its fundamentals are slightly weak, and the market sentiment is divided. It is expected to maintain a consolidation pattern [28][29] - Investment advice: Iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The downside is limited, and it is expected to remain in a consolidation pattern [29] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The WTO supports Indonesia in the biodiesel tariff dispute, and the Trump administration makes decisions on SRE applications [30][31] - The negative impact of SRE is less than expected, and US soybean oil price rebounds. Domestic edible oils are expected to rise and then fluctuate [32] - Investment advice: After last week's adjustment, US biofuel policies drive up US soybean oil price. Domestic edible oils are expected to rise and then fluctuate, with palm oil having the largest increase [32] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Cotton mills destock, Brazil's cotton exports reach a record high, and US cotton export contracts are poor [33][34][35] - US cotton export contracts are still weak, and ICE cotton price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [35][36] - Investment advice: ICE cotton price has limited upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Pay continuous attention to demand [36] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's port sugar inventory decreases, a large - scale sugar shipment is made to China, and sugar production estimates are lowered [37][38][40] - International sugar production may be lower than expected, supporting sugar price. Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be long - entry opportunities on dips [41][42] - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar price has limited downside and is expected to fluctuate. Wait for long - entry opportunities on dips for the January contract [42] 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel mills' iron - making capacity utilization and iron - water output are at a certain level, and the automobile industry's inventory decreases [43][44] - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory, and steel price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to actual demand release in mid - to late September [44][45] - Investment advice: Steel price fluctuates. Wait for market dips [46] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase by 3%, and Pro Farmer predicts US soybean yield [47][48] - CBOT soybean price rises due to demand. China's soybean imports in Q4 to next Q1 affect soybean meal supply. Long positions on dips are recommended [49] - Investment advice: Long soybean meal on dips but don't chase highs. Pay continuous attention to Sino - US relations [49] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Cassava starch port inventory decreases slightly, and the price difference with corn starch widens slightly [50][51] - Corn starch inventory pressure is high, and the CS11 - C11 spread may strengthen when new - season production is determined [51][52][53] - Investment advice: The CS11 - C11 spread may strengthen when new - season production is determined [53] 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn price in North China is weakening, and the market is bearish as new grain approaches [54] - Corn futures price may fluctuate widely around 2150. Hold short positions and 11 - 3 reverse spreads [54] - Investment advice: Hold short positions and 11 - 3 reverse spreads. Pay attention to weather and policies [54] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Glencore plans to produce 1 million tons of copper in Argentina, and Freeport Indonesia will accelerate copper concentrate exports [55][56] - Powell's dovish speech supports copper price. Copper price is expected to turn to a fluctuating - strong pattern in the short - term [58][59] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - term long - biased strategy for copper futures. Take profits on domestic - foreign reverse spreads and turn to observation [59] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The "capacity clearance" document is confirmed, and a phosphoric acid iron - lithium industry meeting is held [60] - Short - term de - stocking provides support, and there are opportunities for long positions on dips and positive spreads [61] - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - entry opportunities on dips and positive spreads [61] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The photovoltaic industry advocates fair competition, and Huadian Group's 20GW photovoltaic module procurement is bid [62][64] - Component prices are expected to rise, driving up upstream prices. Polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short - term [65][66] - Investment advice: Adopt a long - biased strategy on dips for polysilicon futures. Consider 11 - 12 reverse spreads around - 2000 yuan/ton [66] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating capacity of industrial silicon's main production areas increases [67] - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are slightly weakening. Its price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [68] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang. Industrial silicon price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [68] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GEM signs a strategic cooperation agreement with Weilan Lithium [69] - Powell's dovish speech may boost nickel price in the short - term. Nickel price is expected to fluctuate, with short - term long - entry opportunities and medium - term short - entry opportunities on highs [70][71] - Investment advice: Short - term long - entry opportunities and medium - term short - entry opportunities on highs for nickel [71] 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME lead shows a discount, and lead's supply - demand is weak [72] - Lead price has cost support, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [72][73] - Investment advice: Observe in the short - term for lead [73] 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - LME zinc shows a discount, and a Peruvian zinc mine resumes operation [74] - Zinc price may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Pay attention to medium - term positive spreads and maintain a positive - spread strategy before overseas inventory bottoms out [75] - Investment advice: Observe for zinc in the short - term. Pay attention to medium - term positive spreads and maintain a positive - spread strategy before overseas inventory bottoms out [75] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - EUA's closing price is 72.53 euros/ton, and carbon price is affected by energy and geopolitics [76] - EU carbon price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [76][77] - Investment advice: EU carbon price will fluctuate in the short - term [77] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US oil rig count decreases [78] - Oil price rises slightly and is expected to fluctuate in a range, waiting for new drivers [78][79] - Investment advice: Oil price will fluctuate in a range in the short - term, waiting for new drivers [79] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong rises, with supply increasing slightly and demand stable [80][81] - Caustic soda price is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Be cautious when chasing highs [83] - Investment advice: The 9.3 military parade may disrupt supply. The spot price may have limited upside. Be cautious when chasing highs [83] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of pulp in Shandong rises, with supply increasing slightly and demand stable [82][84] - Pulp price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [85] - Investment advice: Pulp price will fluctuate in the short - term [85] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - PVC powder price is narrowly sorted, with weak downstream procurement and some good export orders [86] - PVC price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to anti - dumping duties [87] - Investment advice: PVC price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to anti - dumping duties [87] 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export quotes change little, and domestic prices increase [88][89] - Bottle chip inventory is decreasing due to production cuts. Its price follows polyester raw materials [89] - Investment advice: Bottle chip inventory is decreasing due to production cuts. Pay attention to the pressure from device restart and new capacity [89] 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash market in Shahe fluctuates, with prices slightly rising and stable basis [90] - Soda ash price rises slightly, with stable fundamentals. Adopt a short - entry strategy on highs [90] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - entry strategy on highs for soda ash. Pay attention to supply disturbances [90] 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass price in Shahe is stable, with different factory shipment situations [91] - Glass price rises slightly. Be cautious with single - side operations and focus on arbitrage [92] - Investment advice: Be cautious with single - side operations for float glass. Focus on the long - glass short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy when the spread widens [92] 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - A shipping company halts a new - shipbuilding plan due to high costs [93] - SCFI index declines. Container freight rate is expected to decline, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Look for short - entry opportunities on highs [93][94] - Investment advice: Look for short - entry opportunities on highs for container freight rate futures. The October contract tests the 1300 support level [94]