五矿期货农产品早报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans/meal, short - term factors are favorable for CBOT soybeans, but the upward momentum of soybean import costs is uncertain. The domestic soybean meal market is in a situation of both supply and demand being strong, and it is expected to be range - bound [3][5]. - For oils, factors such as the US biodiesel policy, palm oil production potential, and low inventory in India and Southeast Asia support the oil price center, with palm oil expected to be oscillating strongly [7][10]. - For sugar, the possibility of a significant rebound in raw sugar prices is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12][13]. - For cotton, the "dovish" statement of the Fed chair and the approaching consumption season may drive up the short - term Zhengzhou cotton price [15][16]. - For eggs, the egg market's oversupply situation persists, and trading strategies should focus on reducing short positions or shorting after rebounds [17][18]. - For pigs, the market is based on the idea of a price range, with long - term reverse arbitrage ideas continuing [19][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybeans/Meal - Market Information: On Friday night, US soybeans slightly rose, driven by the increase in US soybean oil. The Brazilian soybean premium slightly declined, and the soybean import cost decreased by 20 yuan/ton last week. Domestic soybean meal rumors of state reserves selling weakened it. The domestic soybean meal spot price slightly rose by 20 yuan/ton over the weekend. The downstream inventory days increased by 0.16 days to 8.51 days last week. Last week, 2.27 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China, and this week, the expected crush is 2.5283 million tons. The US soybean - producing areas are expected to have less rainfall in the coming week, dry in August, and the rainfall is expected to recover in early September [3]. - Trading Strategy: The soybean import cost is in a weak and stable trend. It is recommended to buy on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal and pay attention to the profit margin and supply pressure at high levels [5]. Oils - Important Information: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67%, and from August 1 - 20, the expected export increase was 13.61% - 17.5%. From August 1 - 20, the expected palm oil production increase was 0.3%. The EPA approved some small - refinery exemption applications and plans to release a supplementary proposal for the 2026 - 2027 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO). The Canadian government estimates that the rapeseed production will be 20.1 million tons, a 12.9% increase from July's estimate, and the carry - over inventory has doubled to 2.2 million tons [7]. - Trading Strategy: The US biodiesel policy, palm oil production potential, and low inventory in India and Southeast Asia support the oil price center. Palm oil is expected to be oscillating strongly before the inventory accumulates and the negative feedback from the demand side appears [10]. Sugar - Key Information: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price was oscillating. The closing price of the January contract was 5,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32%. The spot price of sugar in different regions had slight adjustments. As of August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased from 76 to 70, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded decreased from 3.3179 million tons to 2.9169 million tons [12]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the increase in sugar production in Brazil and the expected increase in the Northern Hemisphere's new season, the possibility of a significant rebound in raw sugar prices is low. The Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - Key Information: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price was oscillating. The closing price of the January contract was 14,030 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased by 20 yuan/ton. As of August 22, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.8%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from last week; the weaving mill's operating rate was 37.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from last week. The cotton commercial inventory decreased by 150,000 tons from last week to 1.71 million tons [15]. - Trading Strategy: The "dovish" statement of the Fed chair and the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season may drive up the short - term Zhengzhou cotton price [16]. Eggs - Spot Information: The domestic egg price was stable over the weekend, with some local increases. The market supply is sufficient, and the demand digestion is slow. It is expected that the egg price will first fall and then rise this week [17]. - Trading Strategy: The egg market's oversupply situation persists. From the perspective of capital game, it is not advisable to short aggressively, and trading strategies should focus on reducing short positions or shorting after rebounds [18]. Pigs - Spot Information: The domestic pig price was stable over the weekend, with some local small increases. The northern breeding end has a sentiment of惜售 at low prices, and the southern breeding end mostly chooses to wait and see at stable prices. Today's pig price is expected to be mainly stable [19]. - Trading Strategy: The market is based on the idea of a price range, with long - term reverse arbitrage ideas continuing. Pay attention to the trading opportunities given by extreme sentiment [20].