Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is influenced by various factors such as Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks, which increase the probability of a September interest rate cut, and trade situation changes. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities, with some expected to be bullish and others facing supply - demand imbalances and uncertainties [3][6][9] - In the short term, most sectors are expected to have volatile trends, and investors should pay attention to both macro - level policies and industry - specific supply - demand fundamentals [3][5][9] Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - News: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will guide the construction of computing power facilities and break through key core technologies; a new management method for rare earths is released; the photovoltaic industry association advocates against malicious competition; Fed Chair Powell shows a dovish stance on interest rates [2] - Trading Logic: After continuous recent rises, the market may experience intensified short - term fluctuations, but the overall strategy is to buy on dips [3] Treasury Bonds - Market: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan this month. On Friday, the central bank conducted 361.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 123.2 billion yuan [4] - Strategy: The economy shows resilience in the first half of the year, but July's social financing and credit data are weaker than expected. With the central bank's support, funds are expected to remain loose. Interest rates may have downward space, but the stock - bond seesaw effect should be noted, and the bond market may enter a short - term shock pattern [5] Precious Metals - Market: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose, while COMEX gold and silver prices fell. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.26%, and the US dollar index was 97.77 [6] - Outlook: Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting indicates the start of a new interest rate cut cycle. The market prices in a 75% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and further cuts in December. It is recommended to buy silver on dips, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts provided [6][7] Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - Market: Last week, copper prices first declined and then rose. Inventory in the three major exchanges decreased by 0.04 million tons. The spot import window opened, and the premium for foreign copper increased. The discount of LME's Cash/3M narrowed, and the domestic spot had a premium over futures [9] - Outlook: With the Fed's dovish stance increasing the probability of a September rate cut, and considering the tight supply of copper raw materials and the approaching peak season, copper prices are expected to rise gradually [9] Aluminum - Market: Fed Chair's dovish remarks and the cancellation of some tariffs led to a strong performance of aluminum prices. The weighted contract's open interest increased, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and the processing fee for aluminum rods declined [10] - Outlook: With the increasing expectation of a September rate cut and the approaching peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with reference price ranges provided [10] Zinc - Market: On Friday, the Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly. Near the National Day parade, production restrictions are imposed in Tianjin [11] - Outlook: The zinc mine inventory is rising, and the import of zinc concentrate is increasing. Although the mid - term oversupply situation remains, the dovish remarks of the Fed strengthen the support for zinc prices, and it is difficult for zinc prices to fall significantly in the short term [11][12] Lead - Market: On Friday, the Shanghai lead index rose slightly. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly. Near the National Day parade, recycling and production of lead are affected [13] - Outlook: The supply of lead is increasing marginally, and the downstream开工 rate is recovering. In the short term, lead prices are supported, but there is still a downward risk in the medium term due to terminal consumption pressure [13] Nickel - Market: Last week, nickel prices continued to fluctuate. The price of nickel ore is weak due to the release of quotas and weak demand. The supply of nickel intermediate products is tight, and the coefficient price has increased slightly [14] - Outlook: Although the macro - environment is positive, the supply of refined nickel is still in surplus, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with reference price ranges provided [14] Tin - Market: Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply of tin is low due to the slow resumption of production in Myanmar, and the demand is weak due to the sluggish downstream industries. The social inventory decreased significantly last week [15][16] - Outlook: In the short term, the supply - demand situation of tin is weak, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate, with reference price ranges provided [16] Carbonate Lithium - Market: The spot index of carbonate lithium declined. The price of the LC2511 contract also decreased significantly. The oversupply sentiment has cooled down, and the support level for lithium prices has increased [17] - Outlook: Attention should be paid to overseas supply and domestic supply gaps. The reference price range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2511 contract is provided [17] Alumina - Market: On August 22, the alumina index rose. The spot price in Shandong had a premium over the 09 contract. The overseas price remained stable, and the import window was closed. The futures warehouse receipts increased [18] - Outlook: With continuous supply disturbances in domestic and overseas ore markets and the Fed's dovish stance, the downward space for alumina futures prices is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [18] Stainless Steel - Market: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract declined. The spot price in Foshan remained stable, while that in Wuxi decreased. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the futures inventory decreased. The social inventory increased [19][20] - Outlook: Although low - priced resources impact the spot price, steel mills have the intention to support prices, and stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate [20] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market: On Friday, the AD2511 contract rose. The weighted contract's open interest decreased, and the trading volume increased slightly. The spot price increased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly [21] - Outlook: As the peak season approaches and the cost is strongly supported, casting aluminum alloy prices may continue to rise, but the large difference between futures and spot prices will limit the upward space [21] Black Building Materials Category Steel - Market: On Friday, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The registered warehouse receipts of rebar increased, while those of hot - rolled coil decreased. The spot prices of both decreased [23] - Outlook: The overall demand for steel products is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the steel mill's profit is shrinking. If demand does not improve, prices may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [24] Iron Ore - Market: On Friday, the main contract of iron ore declined slightly. The overseas shipment and arrival volume of iron ore increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline, and the port inventory increased slightly [25][26] - Outlook: Currently, the supply pressure is not significant, but the iron - water increase may be limited due to weak terminal demand. With the Fed's dovish stance, iron ore prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of Tangshan's production restrictions [26] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass Market: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China remained stable. The total inventory of glass increased slightly, and the inventory days increased. The short - term price is expected to be weak, but the long - term trend depends on policy and demand changes [27] - Soda Ash Market: The spot price rose slightly. The supply decreased, and the inventory pressure increased. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term price center may rise, but the upward space is limited [28] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: On August 22, the manganese - silicon main contract declined slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract rose slightly. After Powell's dovish speech, the commodity market rebounded, and there is a risk of a follow - up rise in the ferroalloy market [29] - Outlook: Manganese - silicon's price has broken through the support line, and it is recommended that speculative positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate at appropriate times. Ferrosilicon's price is in a narrow - range shock, and attention should be paid to the support level [29][30] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon Market: On Friday, the industrial - silicon futures main contract rose. The spot prices remained stable. Although the price has rebounded, the problem of over - capacity, high inventory, and weak demand remains. The supply is increasing, and the demand support is limited [32][33] - Outlook: With the Fed's dovish stance, industrial - silicon prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to potential industry policies [33] - Polysilicon Market: On Friday, the polysilicon futures main contract declined slightly. The spot prices remained stable. The production is increasing, and the warehouse receipts are rising rapidly. There are positive feedback effects in the industrial chain, and the price is expected to be volatile [34] - Outlook: In the context of the Fed's dovish stance, polysilicon prices are resilient and are expected to maintain high volatility. Attention should be paid to the impact of warehouse receipts on the price [34] Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - Market: NR and RU first declined and then rebounded. The long - and short - term views on rubber prices differ. The long - term view is based on seasonal expectations and demand improvement, while the short - term view is based on weak demand [36][37] - Outlook: The opening rate of all - steel tires increased. The rubber price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. Partial closing of the long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 positions is suggested [38][40] Crude Oil - Market: As of Friday, the prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all rose. The gasoline, fuel oil, and naphtha inventories in Europe decreased, while the diesel and aviation kerosene inventories increased [41] - Outlook: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is relatively undervalued. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and not to chase the price [42] Methanol - Market: On August 22, the 01 contract of methanol declined. The coal price rose, the cost increased, and the domestic production started to increase. The overseas production is at a medium - high level, and imports are expected to increase rapidly. The demand from port MTO plants is weak, and the inventory is rising [43] - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity in the inter - month spread when supply and demand improve [43] Urea - Market: On August 22, the 01 contract of urea declined. The daily production is at a high level, and the enterprise profit is at a low level. The demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is weak, and the agricultural demand is in the off - season. The export is advancing, and the port inventory is rising [44][45] - Outlook: Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - and - demand situation. It is recommended to buy on dips considering the rising coal price and low production profit [45] Styrene - Market: The spot and futures prices of styrene rose, and the basis weakened. The macro - environment is positive, and the cost is supported. The BZN spread is at a low level, and the supply is increasing. The port inventory is rising, and the demand is improving [46] - Outlook: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and styrene prices may rebound after the inventory reaches a turning point [46] PVC - Market: The PVC01 contract rose. The cost of calcium carbide increased, and the overall production start - up rate decreased. The demand is weak, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [48] - Outlook: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see as the price follows the black - building materials market [48] Ethylene Glycol - Market: The EG01 contract rose. The supply increased, and the downstream load also increased. The port inventory decreased slightly. The profit of different production methods varies, and the cost of ethylene remained stable while the coal price rose [49][50] - Outlook: Although the downstream demand is recovering from the off - season, the supply is still excessive. The inventory is expected to increase in the medium term, and the valuation may decline [50] PTA - Market: The PTA01 contract rose. The supply decreased due to unexpected maintenance, and the inventory decreased. The downstream and terminal start - up rates improved, and the processing fee increased [51] - Outlook: The PTA processing fee is expected to continue to repair, and it is recommended to follow PX and buy on dips considering the improvement in the downstream peak season [51] Para - Xylene - Market: The PX11 contract rose. The domestic and Asian production start - up rates increased. The PTA production start - up rate decreased due to unexpected maintenance. The import increased, and the inventory decreased [52] - Outlook: With high PX production and low PTA production, PX is expected to maintain low inventory. It is recommended to follow crude oil and buy on dips considering the improving downstream situation [52] Polyethylene (PE) - Market: The futures price of PE rose. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance. The cost is supported, the inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the demand for agricultural film raw materials is starting to stock up [53] - Outlook: The long - term contradiction has shifted, and PE prices are expected to rise gradually [53] Polypropylene (PP) - Market: The futures price of PP declined. The profit of Shandong refineries rebounded, and the production start - up rate may increase. The demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [55] - Outlook: In the context of weak supply and demand, it is recommended to buy the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [55] Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - Market: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices were stable with some local increases. Northern farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, while southern farmers are waiting and seeing [57] - Outlook: In the short term, the supply is excessive, but policies may support prices. The far - month contracts are recommended to be in a reverse - spread strategy [57] Eggs - Market: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were stable with some local increases. The supply is sufficient, especially for small and medium - sized eggs. The demand is slow, but it may improve later [58] - Outlook: The negative cycle of oversupply in the egg market has not been broken. It is recommended to reduce short positions or wait for a rebound to short [58] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: On Friday night, US soybeans rose slightly. The cost of soybean imports decreased. The domestic soybean meal spot price rose slightly over the weekend, and the trading volume was average while the pickup was good [59] - Outlook: The cost of soybean imports is expected to be stable. The domestic soybean meal market has strong supply and demand. It is recommended to buy on dips within the cost range and pay attention to the supply pressure and profit at high prices [60] Edible Oils - Market: Malaysian palm oil exports increased in August, and the production also increased slightly. The EPA approved some exemptions for small - scale refineries. Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase [61] - Outlook: The US biodiesel policy, the limited production potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and low inventories support the price of edible oils. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong in the fourth quarter if the demand and production remain stable [63] Sugar - Market: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot prices of sugar in different regions had different changes. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased [64] - Outlook: With increasing production in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere, and increasing domestic imports, Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64] Cotton - Market: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The spot price increased slightly. The downstream start - up rates increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [65] - Outlook: The Fed's dovish stance is positive for the commodity market. Considering the approaching peak season and low inventory, Zhengzhou cotton prices may have upward momentum in the short term [66]
五矿期货文字早评-20250825
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-25 01:00