黑色建材日报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for steel products is weak, with the inventory accumulation rate accelerating, and the steel mills' profit is gradually shrinking. If the demand fails to improve effectively, the price may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [3]. - For iron ore, although the supply pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season, the contradiction between high hot metal production and weak terminal demand needs attention. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6]. - For ferrous alloys, the prices are affected by emotions in the short term. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively. Hedging funds can seize opportunities according to their own situations. The fundamental problems of over - supply in manganese silicon and silicon iron still exist [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and polysilicon will maintain a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" and high - volatility operation [16][17]. - For glass and soda ash, glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the price center of soda ash may gradually rise, but the upward space is limited [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Quotes: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3119 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3361 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (- 0.41%) [2]. - Fundamentals: Rebar production decreased significantly this week, demand had a slight recovery but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, demand continued to rise, production increased rapidly, and inventory had increased for six consecutive weeks [3]. Iron Ore - Market Quotes: The main contract (I2601) closed at 770.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.32% (- 2.50). The weighted position was 82.93 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.71 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.49% [5]. - Fundamentals: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased. The daily average hot - metal output was 2.4075 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous period. Port inventory continued to rise slightly, and steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased slightly [6]. Ferrous Alloys - Market Quotes: On August 22, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 0.10%, and the silicon iron main contract (SF511) closed up 0.07% [8][9]. - Fundamentals: The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and production continued to rise. There was no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals of silicon iron, and the supply also showed a continuous recovery trend [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) was 8745 yuan/ton, up 1.27% (+ 110). The weighted contract position decreased by 5333 hands to 523742 hands [13]. - Fundamentals: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand remained. Production continued to rise, and the demand support for prices was limited [15][16]. - Polysilicon - Market Quotes: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) was 51405 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 125). The weighted contract position decreased by 8014 hands to 327469 hands [16]. - Fundamentals: The production continued to increase, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. It maintained a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Market Quotes: The spot price in Shahe was 1147 yuan, and in Central China was 1060 yuan, both unchanged from the previous day [19]. - Fundamentals: Production remained high, inventory pressure increased slightly, and downstream real - estate demand did not improve significantly. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [19]. - Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The spot price was 1220 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day [20]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased, inventory pressure increased, and downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center might gradually rise in the long term [20].