五矿期货贵金属日报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The speech by Powell at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting indicates the beginning of a new round of interest - rate cut cycles by the Fed. The market currently prices a 75% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the September FOMC meeting and further expects a 25 - basis - point cut in December. There may be an over - market - expected 75 - basis - point cut within the year. In the context of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations, silver prices will rise more significantly than gold, and the gold - silver ratio will be further downward - corrected. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips, with the reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract being 770 - 794 yuan/gram and for the Shanghai Silver main contract being 9135 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Shanghai Gold rose 0.71% to 781.12 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 1.98% to 9403.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.15% to 3413.50 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.45% to 38.88 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.26%, and the US dollar index was 97.77 [2] - Various precious - metal related data such as Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc., showed different changes in prices, trading volumes, and holdings. For example, the price of Au(T + D) was 771.63 yuan/gram with a daily change of - 0.03 yuan and a 0.00% change; the price of London Gold was 3334.25 dollars/ounce with a daily change of - 4.05 dollars and a - 0.12% change [4] Market Outlook - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting marked a significant marginal shift in his monetary policy stance, laying the groundwork for an interest - rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. He mentioned that inflation has fallen from its post - pandemic high, and the impact of tariffs on inflation is not persistent. He also expressed concerns about the labor market, believing that the current balance in the labor market comes from the slowdown of both labor supply and demand, increasing the risk of employment decline [2] Investment Strategy - Given the expected start of the Fed's new round of loose cycles, focus on the opportunity to buy silver on dips. Based on historical data, gold prices benefit from the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, while silver prices are more driven by the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations. With the current weak US employment data and limited increase in the consumer price index, there is a possibility of an over - market - expected 75 - basis - point interest - rate cut within the year [3] Data Tables and Charts - The report presents a large number of data tables and charts, including the summary of key gold and silver data (such as price, trading volume, holdings, inventory, etc.), the relationship between precious - metal prices and other factors (such as the US dollar index, real interest rates), the near - far month structure of precious - metal futures, and the internal and external price differences of precious metals [7][12][51]