Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the dovish remarks from the Fed Chairman have increased the probability of a rate cut in September, and the easing of overseas trade tensions and the strong performance of the global equity market have created a positive sentiment. Different metals have different supply - demand situations, and prices are expected to show different trends, with some likely to rise, some to oscillate, and some facing both upward and downward risks [1][3][6]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: Last week, copper prices first declined and then rose. LME copper closed up 0.5% at $9,809 per ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79,110 yuan per ton [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 0.04 tons week - on - week. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.5 to 8.2 tons, LME inventory slightly increased to 15.6 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 0.4 to 24.6 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 0.6 tons [1]. - Market: The spot import window opened, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. The LME market's Cash/3M discount narrowed to $78.4 per ton, and the domestic Shanghai area's spot premium over futures was 150 yuan per ton. The scrap copper substitution advantage remained low, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises continued to decline, while that of refined copper rod enterprises increased [1]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to oscillate upward due to the positive sentiment and the tight supply of copper raw materials [1]. Aluminum - Price: Last Friday, LME aluminum closed up 1.12% at $2,622 per ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20,755 yuan per ton [3]. - Inventory: The weighted contract's open interest of SHFE aluminum increased by 11,000 to 575,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3,000 to 57,000 tons. Domestic three - region aluminum ingot inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 436,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory remained flat at 88,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 479,000 tons [3]. - Market: The spot premium in the East China region over futures was 30 yuan per ton, and downstream buyers replenished stocks at low prices, with stable market transactions [3]. - Outlook: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to the positive sentiment and the transition of downstream from the off - season to the peak season. The operating range of the domestic main contract is expected to be 20,600 - 20,900 yuan per ton, and that of LME 3M aluminum is 2,590 - 2,650 dollars per ton [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Price: As of Friday afternoon, the AD2511 contract closed up 0.25% at 20,175 yuan per ton. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 increased by 25 yuan per ton to about 20,025 yuan per ton, and the average price of imported ADC12 remained unchanged at 19,770 yuan per ton [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of domestic three - region recycled aluminum alloy ingots slightly increased to 31,500 tons [4]. - Outlook: The downstream of casting aluminum alloy is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost support is strong. Prices may continue to rise, but the large difference between futures and spot prices will limit the upward space [4]. Lead - Price: Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.20% at 16,782 yuan per ton, and LME lead 3S rose $3 to $1,974.5 per ton [6]. - Inventory: SHFE lead futures inventory was 58,900 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 63,200 tons. LME lead inventory was 279,600 tons, and the LME lead cancellation warrant was 54,100 tons [6]. - Industry News: Near the National Day parade, the recycling business of waste lead - acid batteries in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei and nearby areas slowed down, and some smelting enterprises' production decreased due to environmental protection measures [6]. - Outlook: In the short term, the increase in the operating rate of primary enterprises and the positive sentiment of commodities support the lead price. In the medium term, terminal consumption pressure remains high, and there is still a risk of decline [6]. Zinc - Price: Last Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 0.13% at 22,269 yuan per ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $1.5 to $2,775 per ton [7]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 32,800 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 132,900 tons. LME zinc inventory was 69,400 tons, and the LME zinc cancellation warrant was 26,500 tons [7][8]. - Industry News: Near the National Day parade, Tianjin restricted transportation vehicles and implemented production restrictions on galvanizing enterprises, which are expected to end on September 4 [8]. - Outlook: The mid - term industry surplus situation remains unchanged, but the dovish remarks from the Fed have strengthened the support for zinc prices, and there is unlikely to be a large decline in the short term [8]. Tin - Price: Last week, tin prices oscillated. On Friday, the SHFE tin's main contract closed at 268,440 yuan per ton, up 0.52% from the previous day [10]. - Supply: Myanmar's resumption of production is slow, and the import of tin concentrates in July decreased significantly. The operating rate of domestic smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi remained low, at 59.64% [10]. - Demand: The consumption of electronic products is weak, and the demand for photovoltaic welding strips has declined. Downstream enterprises have low inventory levels and mainly purchase on - demand [10]. - Inventory: Last week, consumers picked up goods to replenish inventory, and the social inventory of tin ingots decreased significantly. On August 22, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major markets was 9,508 tons, a decrease of 884 tons from the previous Friday [10]. - Outlook: Tin supply is low, and demand is weak in the off - season. Prices are expected to oscillate, with the domestic tin price operating range expected to be 250,000 - 275,000 yuan per ton and the LME tin price operating range expected to be $31,000 - $34,000 per ton [10]. Nickel - Price: Last week, nickel prices continued to oscillate [11]. - Supply: The price of nickel ore is weak. The supply of fire - refined nickel ore has increased, and the supply of wet - refined nickel ore is stable. The supply of intermediate products is tight, and the coefficient price has increased slightly [11][12]. - Demand: The demand for stainless steel is weak, which restricts the price of nickel iron. Some electric nickel and nickel sulfate production enterprises still have purchasing demand for intermediate products [11][12]. - Inventory: On Friday, the social inventory of refined nickel was 40,900 tons, a decrease of 1,019 tons from the previous week [12]. - Outlook: The macro - environment is positive, but the refined nickel supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and the weak stainless steel demand limits the upward space. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the SHFE nickel's main contract price operating range expected to be 115,000 - 128,000 yuan per ton and the LME nickel 3M contract operating range expected to be $14,500 - $16,500 per ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 80,332 yuan, down 1.83% from the previous trading day. The LC2511 contract closed at 78,960 yuan, down 4.59% from the previous day [14]. - Market: The previous sentiment fluctuation was greater than the actual change in fundamentals. The bullish sentiment cooled last week, and the market callback was large. The reduction in production at Jianxiaowo has been realized, and SQM has increased the annual output of the Holland mine [14]. - Outlook: The supply - demand situation of the lithium market has improved, and the support level of lithium prices has moved up. Attention should be paid to overseas supply and industrial news. The operating range of the LC2511 contract on the GZEE is expected to be 74,000 - 81,000 yuan per ton [14]. Alumina - Price: On August 22, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.45% to 3,131 yuan per ton, and the unilateral trading open interest decreased by 0.8 million lots to 3.63 million lots [16]. - Market: The Shandong spot price was 3,200 yuan per ton, with a premium of 44 yuan per ton over the 09 contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $370 per ton, and the import window was closed [16]. - Inventory: On Friday, the futures warehouse receipts were 77,700 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous day [16]. - Outlook: The supply disturbances of domestic and foreign ores continue, and the Fed's dovish remarks are expected to drive the non - ferrous sector to strengthen. The downward space of alumina futures prices is limited after a sharp decline. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to be 3,100 - 3,500 yuan per ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies and Guinea's ore policies [16]. Stainless Steel - Price: On Friday afternoon, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,750 yuan per ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets showed different trends [19]. - Inventory: The futures inventory was 101,925 tons, a decrease of 16,715 tons from the previous day, and the social inventory increased by 1.19% to 1.0917 million tons, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 2.20% [19]. - Market: The decline was mainly due to the low - price selling of some arbitrage institutions, which increased the sales pressure in the spot market. Downstream procurement was cautious, and the market trading atmosphere was light [19]. - Outlook: In the short term, although low - price resources still impact the spot price, steel mills have the intention to support the price, and with the support of rigid demand, the stainless steel price is expected to continue to oscillate [19].
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250825
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-25 00:58