信用分析周报：利差调整后，或存补涨机会-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The report continues to expect the 10Y Treasury yield to range between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of 2025. Currently, the 10Y Treasury yield is close to 1.8%, presenting high cost - effectiveness. It anticipates the 10Y Treasury yield to return to around 1.65% in the next six months and the 5Y national and joint - stock second - tier capital bonds to fall below 1.9%. The growth of wealth management scale is favorable for medium - and short - term credit bonds [3][40] - In 2025, the bond market lacks a trend - based market. In the bond market oscillation during the low - interest - rate era, investment is challenging, and it is necessary to seize band opportunities on the left side. When the stock market adjusts, bond yields may decline rapidly, and right - side investment also has high difficulty [3][40] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing of traditional credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 1435 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 1298 billion yuan. The total issuance was 3967 billion yuan, up 764 billion yuan week - on - week, and the total repayment was 2531 billion yuan, down 535 billion yuan week - on - week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 132 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 167 billion yuan [8] - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 402 billion yuan, up 72 billion yuan week - on - week; the net financing of industrial bonds was - 256 billion yuan, down 428 billion yuan week - on - week; the net financing of financial bonds was 1289 billion yuan, up 1654 billion yuan week - on - week [8] - In terms of issuance and redemption quantity, the issuance of urban investment bonds increased by 15 and the redemption decreased by 6 this week; the issuance of industrial bonds decreased by 4 and the redemption increased by 7; the issuance of financial bonds increased by 17 and the redemption decreased by 9 [9] 1.2 Issuance Cost - The weighted average issuance rates of AA industrial bonds and AA+ financial bonds decreased this week, while the issuance costs of other bonds with different ratings and types increased. Specifically, the issuance rate of AA - rated industrial bonds decreased by 46BP compared with last week, mainly due to the low - rate issuance of "25 Ningbo Construction SCP001" and "25 Beijing Electronic City SCP002". The issuance costs of AA and AA+ urban investment bonds and industrial bonds increased by more than 10BP compared with last week, and the issuance rates of other bonds with different ratings and types increased by no more than 10BP [15] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Trading Volume - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) increased by 811 billion yuan week - on - week. Among them, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 2439 billion yuan, up 269 billion yuan week - on - week; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 2926 billion yuan, down 489 billion yuan week - on - week; the trading volume of financial bonds was 4876 billion yuan, up 1031 billion yuan week - on - week. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 257 billion yuan, up 74 billion yuan week - on - week [16] 2.2 Turnover Rate - The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated this week. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.56%, up 0.17 pct week - on - week; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 1.61%, down 0.27 pct week - on - week; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 3.25%, up 0.66 pct week - on - week; the turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.71%, up 0.21 pct week - on - week [17] 2.3 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different maturities increased to varying degrees this week, and the adjustment range of some credit bond yields exceeded 10BP. For example, the yields of AA, AAA - and AAA+ credit bonds with maturities within 1Y increased by 4BP each; those with maturities of 3 - 5Y increased by 9BP, 7BP and 7BP respectively; those with maturities over 10Y increased by 5BP, 7BP and 9BP respectively [22] - Taking AA+ - rated 5Y bonds of each type as an example, the yields of different types of bonds increased to varying degrees. The yields of private - placement industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds increased by 6BP each; the yield of AA+ - rated 5Y urban investment bonds increased by 9BP; the yields of commercial bank ordinary bonds and second - tier capital bonds increased by 6BP and 8BP respectively; the yield of AA+ - rated 5Y asset - backed securities increased by 6BP [23] 2.4 Credit Spreads - Generally, the credit spreads of bonds with different industries and ratings mostly adjusted by no more than 5BP this week, and the credit spreads of a few industries compressed. Specifically, the credit spreads of AA - rated media and AAA - rated household appliances widened by 5BP each compared with last week; the credit spreads of AA+ - rated leisure services and machinery decreased by 5BP and 6BP respectively [23] 2.4.1 Urban Investment Bonds - In terms of maturity, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities all adjusted this week. The credit spreads of 0.5 - 1Y, 1 - 3Y, 3 - 5Y, 5 - 10Y and over - 10Y urban investment bonds widened by less than 1BP, 3BP, 6BP, 7BP and 3BP respectively compared with last week [28] - By region, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds in most regions widened to varying degrees this week. For example, the credit spreads of AA - rated urban investment bonds in Shanxi and Anhui widened by 6BP each; the credit spread of AA+ - rated urban investment bonds in Inner Mongolia widened by 12BP; the credit spreads of AAA - rated urban investment bonds in Liaoning and Shaanxi widened by 7BP and 6BP respectively [29] 2.4.2 Industrial Bonds - This week, the industrial bonds with different maturities and ratings mostly adjusted, and the credit spreads of 3Y private - placement industrial bonds performed well and compressed. Specifically, the credit spreads of 3Y AAA -, AA+ and AA private - placement industrial bonds compressed by 4BP, 5BP and 2BP respectively compared with last week; the credit spreads of 10Y AAA -, AA+ and AA private - placement industrial bonds widened by 2BP, 4BP and 1BP respectively; the credit spreads of 3Y AAA - and AA+ perpetual industrial bonds widened by 3BP and 4BP respectively, and the credit spread of AA perpetual industrial bonds compressed by 2BP [32] 2.4.3 Bank Capital Bonds - This week, the credit spreads of 3Y bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds compressed significantly, while the spreads of other maturities mostly widened slightly. Specifically, the credit spreads of 1Y AAA -, AA+ and AA second - tier capital bonds widened by 4BP, 4BP and 5BP respectively; the credit spreads of 3Y AAA -, AA+ and AA second - tier capital bonds compressed by 3BP, 2BP and 1BP respectively; the credit spreads of 1Y AAA -, AA+ and AA bank perpetual bonds compressed by 3BP each; the credit spreads of 3Y AAA -, AA+ and AA bank perpetual bonds compressed by 4BP each [34] 3. Bond Market News - This week, the implied ratings of 97 bond issues of 11 entities were downgraded. Among them, Zhuhai Gree Group Co., Ltd. involved 29 issues, CCCC Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. involved 17 issues, Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi - Tech Park Development Co., Ltd. involved 14 issues, Shenye Group Co., Ltd. involved 13 issues, and Shanghai Lujiazui (Group) Co., Ltd. involved 12 issues [2][37] 4. Investment Recommendations - This week, a total of 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 220 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured in the open market. The central bank carried out 2.077 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 1.2652 trillion yuan for the whole week. The DR001 closed at 1.45% on Friday, the same as the closing price on Monday. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond continued to adjust under pressure from 1.7465% at the close last Friday to 1.78% at the close on 8/22, and the yield of credit bonds also adjusted under pressure [5][39] - Generally, the credit spreads of bonds with different industries and ratings mostly adjusted by no more than 5BP this week, and the credit spreads of a few industries compressed. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities all adjusted; the industrial bonds with different maturities and ratings mostly adjusted, and the credit spreads of 3Y private - placement industrial bonds compressed; the credit spreads of 3Y bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds compressed significantly, while the spreads of other maturities mostly widened slightly [5][39]