Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is bullish, while the medium - term outlook remains range - bound. In the short term, the overall macro sentiment is warm, with the pre - parade equity market excitement driving commodities higher. The rubber sector follows the commodity index. Also, the "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization policies support the overall valuation of commodities. In the medium term, the futures price increase is mainly speculative, and after the commodity market returns to fundamental trading, the futures price is expected to correct to the fundamental valuation range [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For the butadiene rubber (BR) futures, the closing price of the main contract dropped from 11,775 yuan/ton to 11,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased from 106,881 lots to 89,334 lots, and the open interest decreased from 38,436 lots to 35,755 lots. The trading value decreased from 630,298 ten - thousand yuan to 522,802 ten - thousand yuan [1] - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong BR - futures main contract increased from - 25 to 90, and the monthly spread (BR09 - BR10) increased from - 20 to 20. The prices of North China, East China, and South China private BR decreased by 50 yuan/ton each [1] - Spot Market: The market price of Shandong BR (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,750 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR) (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 50 yuan/ton each. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Fundamentals: The butadiene rubber operating rate increased from 75.4881% to 75.8368%, an increase of 0.35%. The theoretical full cost and profit of butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 12,182 yuan/ton and - 282 yuan/ton respectively [1] b) Industry News - As of August 20, 2025 (Week 34), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.06 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 million tons or 0.56%. Most previously shut - down butadiene rubber plants restarted, increasing domestic production. The spot market price rose due to capital speculation and natural rubber market trends, but downstream procurement led to slow terminal sales. Sample production enterprise inventory decreased slightly, while sample trading enterprise inventory increased [2]
合成橡胶:短期偏强,中期仍在区间震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-25 02:04