Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The futures price of cotton is fluctuating and showing a slightly stronger trend [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2601 closed at 14,030 yuan/ton with 0.00% daily increase and 14,155 yuan/ton in the night session with 0.89% increase; CY2511 closed at 20,060 yuan/ton with 0.00% daily increase and 20,180 yuan/ton in the night session; ICE US cotton 12 rose 0.79% to 68 cents/pound. For trading volume and open interest, CF2601 had 214,219 contracts traded with an increase of 16,126 from the previous day and an open interest of 727,579 contracts with a decrease of 6,325; CY2511 had 5,396 contracts traded with a decrease of 1,999 and an open interest of 21,958 contracts with an increase of 1,045 [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: Zhengzhou cotton had 7,198 warehouse receipts with a decrease of 137 and 63 valid forecasts with a decrease of 125; cotton yarn had 64 warehouse receipts with a decrease of 5 and 0 valid forecasts with an increase of 69 [1]. - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,272 yuan/ton with no change; Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,963 yuan/ton with no change; the price in Shandong was 15,243 yuan/ton with an increase of 35 (0.23%); in Hebei, it was 15,249 yuan/ton with an increase of 45 (0.30%); the 3128B index was 15,243 yuan/ton with an increase of 33 (0.22%); the international cotton index M was 74.95 cents/pound with a decrease of 0.24%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,720 yuan/ton with an increase of 20 (0.10%), and its arrival price was 22,053 yuan/ton with an increase of 18 (0.08%) [1]. - Spread Data: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 270 yuan/ton with a decrease of 10; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,240 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading had partial good transactions. Southern Xinjiang cotton was mostly traded inland. The sales basis of inland warehouse cotton spot was stable, and the shipment was average. Spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was CF09 + 1400 - 1550, inland self - pick; the mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang local machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was CF01+1300 and above, Xinjiang self - pick [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was okay. Spinning mills' inventory continued to decline. Inland spinning mills had a cash - flow loss of about 500 yuan/ton, and the current production - restriction situation had no improvement. The pure - cotton grey fabric market was generally stable and weak, with limited market improvement. The downstream inquiry and transaction were average, and the inventory pressure of weaving factories slowly decreased [2]. - US Cotton: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures rose slightly, driven by the US interest - rate cut expectation [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4][5].
棉花:期货价格震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-25 02:04