Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still good. Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, but it's not advisable to chase the price at present. Hold short - term long positions. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have upward potential [2] - For methanol, suggest short - term unilateral observation and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity of inter - month spread after the improvement of supply and demand [4] - For urea, the domestic urea faces a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The price will remain range - bound before substantial positive factors appear. It's recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [6] - For rubber, it's expected that the rubber price will fluctuate and consolidate. It's advisable to wait and see temporarily. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10][13] - For PVC, due to the reality of strong supply, weak demand and high valuation, the fundamentals are poor. It's recommended to wait and see [15] - For benzene - ethylene, the long - term BZN may recover. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [17][18] - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost - led downward trend to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy. The polyethylene price may fluctuate upward [20] - For polypropylene, it's recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21] - For PX, the valuation is currently at a neutral level. The terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the arrival of the peak season [23] - For PTA, the supply - side destocking pattern has been formed, and the processing fee is expected to continue to repair. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the improvement of downstream performance in the peak season [25] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is still in excess. The mid - term port inventory is expected to enter a restocking cycle. The valuation has a downward pressure in the mid - term [26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Quotes: As of last Friday, WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.29, or 0.46%, to $63.77; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.12, or 0.18%, to $67.79; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.30 yuan, or 0.47%, to 487 yuan [1] - Data: In the European ARA weekly data, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 8.73 million barrels, a 0.29% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 1.27 million barrels to 15.16 million barrels, a 9.13% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.11 million barrels to 6.64 million barrels, a 1.60% decrease; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.75 million barrels to 4.97 million barrels, a 13.07% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.17 million barrels to 7.45 million barrels, a 2.27% increase; the total refined oil inventory increased by 0.55 million barrels to 42.95 million barrels, a 1.31% increase [1] Methanol - Market Quotes: On August 22, the 01 contract fell 20 yuan/ton to 2405 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 110 [4] - Supply and Demand: Coal prices are rising, costs are increasing, and domestic production has bottomed out and is rising. Overseas device operation has returned to medium - high levels, and subsequent imports will also increase rapidly. The port MTO device is shut down and is expected to resume at the end of the month. Traditional demand is currently weak. The market still has expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO, and the futures price shows signs of stabilizing, but the port inventory is still rising rapidly [4] - Strategy: Suggest short - term unilateral observation and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity of inter - month spread after the improvement of supply and demand [4] Urea - Market Quotes: On August 22, the 01 contract fell 25 yuan/ton to 1739 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 19 [6] - Supply and Demand: Daily production is at a high level, and enterprise profits are at a low level. Supply pressure still exists. The start - up of compound fertilizer and melamine has declined, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Domestic demand lacks support as a whole, and exports are continuing. Port inventory has risen again, and the current demand variable mainly lies in exports [6] - Strategy: The domestic urea faces a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The price will remain range - bound before substantial positive factors appear. It's recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [6] Rubber - Market Quotes: NR and RU rebounded after a decline, following the collective rebound of industrial products [9] - Supply and Demand: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may help a limited increase in rubber production. The seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [10] - Inventory: As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.278 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons or 0.85% from the previous period. As of August 17, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 485,400 (- 18,000) tons [12] - Strategy: It's expected that the rubber price will fluctuate and consolidate. It's advisable to wait and see temporarily. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [13] PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC01 contract rose 15 yuan to 5019 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4740 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 279 (- 15) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 141 (- 9) yuan/ton [15] - Supply and Demand: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall PVC operating rate has decreased. The downstream operating rate has also decreased. Factory inventory has decreased, and social inventory has increased. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level within the year, the valuation pressure is large, the number of maintenance is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestic downstream operating rates are at a five - year low, and export expectations have weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate [15] - Strategy: Due to the reality of strong supply, weak demand and high valuation, the fundamentals are poor. It's recommended to wait and see [15] Benzene - Ethylene - Market Quotes: The spot price and futures price have both risen, and the basis has weakened [17] - Supply and Demand: The macro - economic sentiment in the market is good, and there is still support from the cost side. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and the operation of benzene - ethylene has been continuously rising. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene has continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S has fluctuated and increased [17][18] - Strategy: The long - term BZN may recover. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [18] Polyolefins Polyethylene - Market Quotes: The futures price has risen. The main contract closed at 7386 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7290 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The basis was - 96 yuan/ton, weakening by 4 yuan/ton [20] - Supply and Demand: The market is looking forward to favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still support from the cost side. The spot price has risen, and the downward valuation space of PE is limited. The overall inventory is being reduced from a high level, and the demand side, such as the raw material preparation for agricultural films, has started to stock up, and the overall operating rate has stabilized with low - level fluctuations [20] - Strategy: The long - term contradiction shifts from the cost - led downward trend to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy. The polyethylene price may fluctuate upward [20] Polypropylene - Market Quotes: The futures price has fallen. The main contract closed at 7038 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 12 yuan/ton, strengthening by 10 yuan/ton [21] - Supply and Demand: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate may gradually recover, and the supply of propylene will gradually return. The downstream operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. There are only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity to be put into operation in August. The seasonal peak season may be coming, but under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [21] - Strategy: It's recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21] PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - Market Quotes: The PX11 contract rose 8 yuan to 6966 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 857 dollars. The basis was 79 yuan (+ 20), and the 11 - 1 spread was 66 yuan (- 2) [23] - Supply and Demand: The operating rate in China and Asia has increased. Some overseas devices have restarted. The PTA operating rate has decreased, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance cases. The import volume of South Korean PX to China in the first and middle of August has increased year - on - year. The inventory at the end of June has decreased month - on - month [23] - Strategy: The valuation is currently at a neutral level. The terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the arrival of the peak season [23] PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA01 contract rose 8 yuan to 4868 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 60 yuan/ton to 4870 yuan. The basis was 22 yuan (+ 15), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan (- 6) [25] - Supply and Demand: The PTA operating rate has decreased, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance cases. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the terminal operating rate has also increased. The social inventory has decreased [25] - Strategy: The supply - side destocking pattern has been formed, and the processing fee is expected to continue to repair. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the improvement of downstream performance in the peak season [25] Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG01 contract rose 1 yuan to 4474 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 7 yuan to 4518 yuan. The basis was 92 yuan (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 yuan (0) [26] - Supply and Demand: The supply - side operating rate has increased, and many domestic and overseas devices have restarted or adjusted their loads. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the terminal operating rate has also increased. The import arrival forecast is 54,000 tons, and the port inventory has decreased by 6000 tons [26] - Strategy: The supply is still in excess. The mid - term port inventory is expected to enter a restocking cycle. The valuation has a downward pressure in the mid - term [26]
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250825
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-25 02:19