关税摩擦对中国钢材出口影响分析

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Market Analysis - Multiple countries and regions have increased tariff frictions and imposed additional tariffs on Chinese steel products, leading to a new round of adjustment in the global steel trade pattern [4]. - China's steel industry holds an important position globally, with its crude steel output accounting for about 55% of the world's total in 2024, and has long accounted for over 50% [4]. - China's steel exports continue to show a growth trend. From January to July 2025, the total steel export volume reached 67.98 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and the billet export volume increased significantly [4]. - The export of high - value - added products in China has increased significantly. From January to July 2025, the export volume of thick plates and large - section steel increased by 10.7% and 38.9% respectively year - on - year [4]. - The structure of China's steel exports has changed. The export volume of billets and large - section steel has increased, while that of medium - thick wide steel strips and cold - rolled thin wide steel strips has decreased [5]. - China's steel exports to North America and some countries that have imposed additional tariffs have continued to shrink, while exports to emerging economies have maintained growth [5][6]. Strategy - Pay attention to changes in steel export regions and objectively evaluate the resilience of China's steel exports and consumption [7]. Summary by Directory Preface - China's steel exports show strong resilience and adaptability. Facing challenges from anti - dumping investigations in traditional markets, China has accelerated the exploration of emerging markets, and the Belt and Road Initiative has provided strategic support [14]. Part One: Anti - Dumping Investigation on Chinese Steel Exports by Some Countries and Regions - Since 2025, economies such as India, the EU, the US, and Vietnam have launched anti - dumping investigations or made anti - dumping rulings on various high - value - added steel products from China, which may lead to a new round of adjustment in the global steel trade pattern [15]. Part Two: China's Crude Steel Output Holds an Important Position Globally - China's crude steel output reached a record high in 2020 and decreased in 2021 and 2022. In 2024, it was 1.005 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. China's crude steel output accounts for over 50% of the world's total [18][19]. Part Three: China's Steel Export Volume Continues to Show a Growth Trend - Despite the challenges of global trade protectionism and anti - dumping measures, China's steel export volume has continued to grow. From January to July 2025, the total steel export volume reached 67.98 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.4%. The export of high - value - added products has also increased significantly [26][37]. Part Four: Changes in China's Crude Steel Export Structure - The export volume of billets and large - section steel has increased significantly, while that of medium - thick wide steel strips and cold - rolled thin wide steel strips has decreased, indicating a shift from pursuing quantity growth to structural optimization [41]. Part Five: China's Steel Exports Are Shifting to Emerging Markets - China's steel export destination is shifting from traditional developed markets to emerging markets. Exports to North America have decreased, while exports to Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America have increased [49]. Part Six: Conclusion - Multiple countries and regions have imposed additional tariffs on Chinese steel products, and the global steel trade pattern is facing a new round of adjustment. China's steel industry holds an important position globally, and its steel exports continue to grow. The export structure is changing, with a shift towards emerging markets [83][84].