生猪：收储利多落地，等待现货印证

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the passive inventory accumulation stage, supply pressure usually requires multiple rounds of state purchases for digestion. The September contract is still at a premium to the warehouse receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver, and the premium - collecting market continues. The sentiment for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March. Attention should be paid to the downward shift of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [2] - In August, the planned slaughter volume of group companies increased, small - scale farmers were forced to hold back pigs, demand growth was limited, the performance of leading groups in reducing volume to support prices was poor, daily transactions were still weak, and it was difficult to absorb market supply. Spot prices have repeatedly underperformed expectations, and the willingness of social free - range farms to sell pigs increased in the second half of the month. The state purchase policy has been implemented [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 13,780 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year), the Sichuan spot price is 13,550 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year) [4] - Futures Prices: The prices of the生猪2509,生猪2511, and生猪2601 contracts are 13,760 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year), 13,840 yuan/ton (up 75 yuan/ton year - on - year), and 14,145 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively [4] - Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the生猪2509 contract is 2,339 lots (up 725 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 10,823 lots (down 1,032 lots from the previous day); the trading volume of the生猪2511 contract is 36,781 lots (up 20,670 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 73,260 lots (up 3,383 lots from the previous day); the trading volume of the生猪2601 contract is 12,331 lots (up 6,312 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 48,187 lots (up 1,339 lots from the previous day) [4] - Basis and Spreads: The basis of the生猪2509 contract is 20 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year), the basis of the生猪2511 contract is - 60 yuan/ton (down 75 yuan/ton year - on - year), the basis of the生猪2601 contract is - 365 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton year - on - year); the 9 - 11 spread of live pigs is - 80 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the 11 - 1 spread of live pigs is - 305 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year) [4]