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棕榈油:美豆油SRE利空出尽,国际油脂上涨,豆油:四季度缺豆交易暂缓,高位震荡整理
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-25 02:46

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bearish impact of the US soybean oil SRE is over, leading to an increase in international oil prices [1]. - The trading of soybean shortages in the fourth quarter has paused, and soybean oil prices are consolidating at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: The closing prices and daily price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil futures are presented. For example, the palm oil futures price closed at 9,510 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.78% increase, and 9,570 yuan/ton during the night session with a 0.63% increase [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures, along with their changes, are provided. For instance, the trading volume of palm oil futures decreased by 9,332 lots to 48,758 lots, and the open interest decreased by 16,867 lots to 55,391 lots [2]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are listed. For example, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2]. - Basis: The basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in Guangdong and Guangxi regions is shown. For example, the basis of palm oil in Guangdong is 30 yuan/ton [2]. - Price Spreads: The spreads between different futures contracts, such as the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures, soybean oil and palm oil futures, and the 9 - 1 spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures, are presented [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 is estimated to have increased by 3.03% compared to the same period last month, with different growth rates in different regions [3]. - The US EPA announced the results of small refinery biofuel exemption applications, including the approval of 63 full - exemption and 77 partial - exemption applications, and the rejection of 28 applications. It also clarified the use of RIN credit and will return 1.39 billion gallons of RIN credit for 2023 and 2024 [6]. - The US EPA plans to release a supplementary proposal for the 2026 - 2027 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) [7]. - Pro Farmer predicts record - high average yields for US corn and soybeans in 2025, with corn yield at 182.7 bushels/acre and total production at 16.204 billion bushels, and soybean yield at 53.0 bushels/acre and total production at 4.246 billion bushels [7]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated to be 18 million hectares, stable from last month's estimate and 8.4% higher than the previous year. The production is estimated to be 50.9 million tons, stable from last month's estimate and 5.6% higher than the previous year [7]. - In the 34th week (August 16 - 22), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%, 134,300 tons lower than the estimate [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, indicating different levels of bullishness or bearishness [8].