宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term due to the dovish remarks of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, which increased the expectation of interest rate cuts and led to a decline in the US dollar index and an upward movement in gold prices. However, market risk - preference recovery is a negative factor for gold. The market is pricing in a relatively high probability of two interest rate cuts this year. [1][3] - Copper is expected to maintain a strong performance. The dovish remarks of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting led to a decline in the US dollar index and a rapid increase in market risk - preference, causing a jump in copper prices. Domestically, as the industry approaches the peak season and the electrolytic copper inventory decreased last week, industrial support has been enhanced. [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Movement Logic: The dovish speech of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to drop from 98.7 to 97.7 and the New York gold to jump by $40/ounce. The short - term interest rate cut expectation is positive for gold prices, but the recovery of market risk - preference is negative. The market is pricing in a relatively high probability of two interest rate cuts this year. Attention can be paid to the long - short game of New York gold at $3400. [3] - Viewpoint: The intraday view is strongly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is strong in the short - term. [1][3] Copper - Price Movement Logic: On Friday night, copper prices showed an upward trend, with increased positions in Shanghai copper and the main futures price standing above the 79,000 mark. The dovish remarks of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting led to a decline in the US dollar index and a rapid increase in market risk - preference, causing a jump in copper prices. Domestically, as the industry approaches the peak season and the electrolytic copper inventory decreased last week, industrial support has been enhanced. [5] - Viewpoint: The intraday view is strongly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is strong in the short - term. [1][5]