宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250825

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillating and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line [1]. - The ore price is supported by the resilience of ore demand and the warm market sentiment, but the iron ore fundamentals are weakly stable and the valuation is relatively high, so the upside potential is cautiously optimistic. The focus should be on macro - policy changes [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Situation - Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are fermenting, macro - positives are emerging again, and market sentiment has warmed up, causing the ore price to strengthen again [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable. Steel mill production is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore remains at a high level, showing good demand resilience, which supports the ore price. However, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production restrictions are causing continuous disturbances, weakening the positive effect [2]. - Domestic port arrivals have increased, overseas miners' shipments have returned to the annual high, overseas ore supply has increased, but domestic ore supply has contracted again, and overall ore supply has increased [2].